49ers face uncertainty in offseason

SANTA CLARA – The 49ers entered the 2007 season expecting a busy January, but this isn't what they had in mind.

Instead of preparing for their first playoff game since the 2002 season, team owners will ring in the New Year contemplating a shake-up of the front office and big changes to the coaching staff.

How big? That will be announced after a meeting next week with coach Mike Nolan. Team insiders have said Nolan will return in 2008, but the Yorks – principal owner Denise, her husband, John, and their son, Jed – have given no concrete answers. For months, the only person who has commented on the record about Nolan's future is Nolan, and his answers have done little to clear things up.

"Those things are for after the season," he said earlier this week, dismissing a report that he has been told he'll be back.

The uncertainty surrounding Nolan would have been unthinkable a year ago.

The 49ers won two of their final three games – both on the road against better teams – and San Francisco became the sexy pick to topple the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. Nolan was one of the hottest young coaches in the league, well ahead of Cleveland's Romeo Crennel and Miami's Nick Saban, the two other first-time head coaches hired in 2005.

How did the 49ers' rising star fall so fast? Nolan's problems began Feb. 19 when the San Diego Chargers hired Norv Turner as their head coach. It was the second consecutive season the 49ers had lost their offensive coordinator, and Nolan didn't want to subject young quarterback Alex Smith to his third new offense in as many seasons.

So Nolan promoted quarterbacks coach Jim Hostler, a former college defensive back who had never run an NFL offense.

The 49ers' offense struggled badly in exhibition games against Chicago and San Diego, something that proved to be a season-long trend. The team is on track to finish last in the league in scoring and yards gained, and also is flirting with a franchise record for fewest points scored in a season.

Running back Frank Gore and quarterback Alex Smith, the team's key offensive players, have symbolized the 49ers' misfortunes.

Gore entered the season hoping to rush for 2,000 yards. Instead, he has gained roughly half that. Last year, Gore set a franchise record by rushing for 100 yards or more in nine games. This year, he has gone over the 100-yard mark just twice.

Smith fared even worse.

Easily the most iconic play of the 49ers' 2007 season came Sept. 30, when Smith was slammed to the ground by an unblocked Seahawks defender, a hit that separated the quarterback's throwing shoulder.

The play set off a chain of events that hung over the 49ers all season – accusations that Smith's rehabilitation was bungled, a strained relationship between Smith and Nolan and eventually shoulder surgery that will prevent Smith, the former No. 1 overall draft pick, from throwing a football for three months.

Smith's injury has been the subtext of the season, and how Nolan and his staff handled it will be something the Yorks will examine as they determine the coach's fate. They also will look at the 49ers' record.

The team fell well short of its postseason expectations but still could end up with six victories – one fewer than it had in 2006, a season in which many observers believed the young 49ers overachieved. Is this enough to save Nolan's job? The Yorks have two other men they can use for comparison.

Saban abruptly left the Dolphins for Alabama last season after a 6-10 season and his brief tenure in Miami was considered a debacle. Crennel, meanwhile, finished with only four wins a year ago, but his team has been a surprise success story this season. The Browns – ranked eighth in the league on offense – have talent at wide receiver, tight end and running back, and have gone from a team starved for promising young quarterbacks to one with an abundance of them.

Depending on the outcome of Sunday night's game between Indianapolis and Tennessee, Cleveland could reach the playoffs for the first time since 2002.

That is, exactly where Nolan and the 49ers thought they'd be in early January.

About the writer:

• Read Matthew Barrows' 49ers blog at www.sacbee.com/blogs.