They impart, then depart

The great, unanswerable "what if?" is wondering how history would have been different had Eric Musselman lasted into 2008 instead of driving the Kings to migraines and ulcers in one season, a timing difference that would have made the team players in the current coaching turnstile that might whirl off its hinges.

If the Kings would not have been close to the attractive job of some of the others – Mavericks, Suns, Bulls – this would have been the offseason to get stuck with the leftovers. Mike D'Antoni was available and went to the Knicks, Scott Skiles was available and went to the Bucks, Mike Woodson faces an uncertain future in Atlanta despite making the Celtics sweat out the first round, Avery Johnson has been fired in Dallas, and Flip Saunders will be the object of conjecture if Detroit doesn't at least make it to the Finals.

That doesn't even count Pat Riley kicking himself upstairs in Miami, Jerry Sloan and his annual internal debate about leaving Utah for his Illinois farm or Don Nelson weighing his future in Golden State. Nelson is likely to return; Sloan is much more of a coin toss.

So much tumult. Two of the past three recipients/victims of Coach of the Year (Johnson and D'Antoni) were either ousted or made to feel unwanted enough to leave on their own, and three of the four winningest coaches in history (Nelson, Sloan and Riley, all behind Lenny Wilkens) could retire en masse in a potential exodus that would officially turn the '08 coaching carousel historic.

There already has been so much maneuvering that Larry Brown, ready to leap at jobs a year ago but mostly unable to land so much as an interview, got his next former team, the Bobcats. (Great theater: the coach who can't stop unburdening himself to the world goes to work for Michael Jordan, the man who runs basketball operations from behind the Cone of Silence.)

It's also a very bad time to be looking for a first NBA break, as Reggie Theus got 11 months ago with the Kings, under the wire just before the young guns fell into disfavor. Larry Krystkowiak, hired with 18 games remaining in 2006-07, lasted one full season in Milwaukee; Sam Vincent was one and done in Charlotte; and the Grizzlies debated the future of rookie Marc Iavaroni, supposedly the next hot coaching prospect, before announcing he'd have a second season.

So the trend swings back to hiring the proven. That might have been the case anyway, but no way the spotlight vacancies with the Mavericks (Rick Carlisle got the job) or Suns get experimental at this juncture and hand over veteran rosters and championship hopes to a novice. The same could be true if the Pistons have a bad ending and Saunders takes the fall, although assistant Michael Curry is a smart, personable, highly regarded leader destined to start making wish lists around the league.

Even the Knicks considering untested Mark Jackson before grabbing D'Antoni would have been an inside job, with Jackson a New Yorker and popular choice who not only played there but also most of six seasons in Indiana when president Donnie Walsh was a top Pacers executive. Same thing in Miami. Erik Spoelstra got the Heat gig, but as a Riley protégé who spent seven seasons as an assistant there and will spend 2008-09 hearing about how Riley will continue to make the on-court decisions, only now from the front office.

It all makes Theus' first season in Sacramento more of an accomplishment than just 38 wins through injury, suspension, a major trade and enough fines for player insubordination to signal chemistry issues.

At what point he's on the hook for locker-room order or remaking the personality of a roster that too often played without energy or intelligence is not known.

"I really didn't have any expectations for myself," Theus said when asked to rate his job this season compared to what he expected in October. "The thing that was important to me was to gain back the respect we had lost, with the fans and around the country. To gain some sort of identity. I thought we did that.

"I learned a lot. I got an A when it comes to learning. I got an A when it comes to listening. I feel like I'm in such a better position now to coach this team."

Indeed, for all the post-hiring, pre-camp examination of his hiring as the latest college-to-pros coach, the actual learning curve was Theus arriving with just two seasons at New Mexico State and one in the reinvented American Basketball Association. Developing intimate knowledge of the league and reaching back to his own lengthy NBA playing career to remember everything from game strategy to handling older, richer players was the least of his worries.

If anyone would have told the Kings in October they'd face such a long list of difficult circumstances – getting Kevin Martin for only 61 games, Ron Artest for only 57, Mike Bibby for 15 before being traded at the All-Star break for close to nothing – and still win 38, they'd have taken it as a gift. Then again, after five consecutive seasons of declining victories to tie the second-longest tumble in league history, they might have taken a five-game improvement with the best of circumstances and run.

"The first thing I always think about in this scenario is, 'Under the circumstances,' " Theus said. "Thirty-eight wins and not making the playoffs is not where our goals are. But when you're in a situation where people thought you'd probably win in the 20s, it becomes fairly significant."

It didn't save him from getting his knuckles rapped near the end for failing to carve out enough minutes for the youth movement, but 2007-08 became a credibility boost anyway, with the 38-44 record as evidence and the real proof – continued employment – to follow in May.

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