NBA Beat: Grizzlies could have a draft-day dilemma

The draft lottery is Tuesday and:

• Anyone with a cruel streak is rooting for the Grizzlies to get the No. 1 pick.

They have the fourth-best odds to get there and, if the complicated process breaks right at NBA Entertainment headquarters in Secaucus, N.J., the first-best chance for a nervous breakdown.

The dilemma? The Grizzlies have a much greater roster need for power forward Michael Beasley than hometown hero and point guard Derrick Rose, who could help draw more than 5,000 fans a game.

The Grizzlies just finished 29th in attendance, and Rose just led the Memphis Tigers, the popular basketball team in town, to the Final Four. Except that the Grizz invested the fourth pick in 2007 on Mike Conley and also have Kyle Lowry and Javaris Crittenton at the point, and maybe restricted free agent Juan Carlos Navarro. They're more than covered.

Getting Beasley would give them an encouraging starting lineup. Conley is coming off a rookie season with promising moments mixed among injury, Mike Miller is coming off a good season, Rudy Gay is coming off a season of commendable improvements, and Beasley is coming off a starring freshman season at Kansas State. The only position lacking for optimism is center, with either Darko Milicic or Jason Collins. Getting Rose would make them more popular, a very bad basis for a selection, but the Grizz are also in a very bad place in their own city.

• Only two outcomes can incite a riot on stage.

The Warriors could go from the longest odds to win. The outrage wouldn't just be Golden State overcoming the mathematical improbability. It's that no one really considers the Warriors a hurting lottery team. At 48-34, they were a playoff team that didn't make the playoffs only because the Western Conference standings were on steroids.

Or the Trail Blazers could go from the second-longest odds to win. After winning last season. The back-to-back thing, after getting Greg Oden in 2007, would be the killer.

• The Warriors have to like their chances anyway.

Only two teams have ever jumped at least 10 places in the lottery – Orlando from 11th to first in 1993 and Charlotte from 13th to third in 1999. The Magic selected Chris Webber, and the Hornets took Baron Davis – and both were in Golden State this season.

• The Heat can't like its chances.

The team with the worst record has held onto No. 1 just three times since the process began in 1985.

• It gets real interesting if the Kings beat the 1.01-percent chance and move from No. 12 to No. 3.

Picking first causes the great-debate call between Beasley and Rose. The pairing will be tied through the years in comparison much like Oden and Kevin Durant at the top of the 2007 draft, but a consensus star-in-waiting would be in Sacramento either way. At No. 2, Geoff Petrie happily takes the leftover.

Third, though, can be halting. Center Brook Lopez and several combo guards are the best candidates, difficult options when the Kings invested the 2007 lottery pick on a center (Spencer Hawes) and when shooting guard is the least of their concerns.

What a year ago appeared to be the point-guard draft of a generation faded as O.J. Mayo of USC, Jerryd Bayless of Arizona and Eric Gordon of Indiana completed their freshman seasons living up to expectations as dynamic offensive players but failing to convince they could be primary ballhandlers at the next level. If you're a team with a hole at shooting guard and needing a dramatic punch in the backcourt, no problem. If you're the Kings and have Kevin Martin and need a definite high return on a top-three pick, you don't want to get into reaches or risky.