A fresh jobs forecast for the Sacramento region shows tens of thousands of new openings coming our way, but not all are the type public schools are emphasizing.
Although a major push has taken hold in public schools to get all high school graduates ready for college, the new work force study found the vast majority of jobs will require no postsecondary education.
"Employers are going to have a lot of jobs, good quality jobs, that won't require four years of college," said David N. Butler, chief executive officer of the nonprofit Linking Education and Economic Development, or LEED, which was involved in the study.
The 2008 Regional Workforce Forecast, released earlier this month, is a massive and unprecedented look at the jobs picture for the six-county Sacramento region. The study looked closely at 75 key industries that account for more than 80 percent of the region's employment. By 2015, those industries will include almost 900,000 jobs.
The $110,000 study was conducted by the Sacramento Regional Research Institute. It was initiated by Partnership for Prosperity, an alliance of local economic development organizations, and managed by Valley Vision, a nonprofit group dedicated to regional problem solving.
According to the forecast, the bulk of the fastest growing job categories are low-paying, low-skilled occupations such as food service, retail sales, cashiers and office clerks. While some may view the trend as disappointing, Butler said, such jobs are considered the backbone of any economy.
"These are foundational jobs. People move in and out of them," Butler said.
In addition, a wide array of jobs will open in sectors such as health care, construction and technology that will provide decent salaries and stable career paths without requiring four or more years of college.
According to the forecast, about 30 percent of the jobs in the 75 key industries will require some level of college, either two-year, four-year or beyond. Teaching and nursing are among the top growing fields in this realm.
The 30 percent figure runs slightly higher than the state and nation and bodes well for the area's economy, said Ryan Sharp, director of the Sacramento Regional Research Institute.
But it challenges a common wisdom of some public schools: that every high school graduate should be academically prepared to enter a four-year university.
Career-technical education
The new study should open a healthy debate about what kinds of programs schools should offer to get kids ready for the work force, Butler and others said. LEED will address the issue in coming months.
Many districts increasingly are moving toward the goal of requiring all graduates to meet the requirements for getting into the University of California and California State University systems. It is a high bar, requiring laboratory sciences, math through algebra 2 and other tough courses.
The shift has come in response to calls from employers for a better educated work force and widespread concerns that too many students were tracked into lower-level courses that left them ineligible for college.
Some educators and employers have been critical of the push for more rigor, saying schools should provide more vocational type courses, known as "career-technical" education.
The new work force study will guide schools, colleges and training programs in finding the right balance, said Bill Mueller, chief operating officer and managing partner of Valley Vision.
"Should we make all kids UC-ready? That is what this study elevates as a point of debate," Mueller said, noting that Valley Vision is neutral on the point. "It's good to challenge assumptions."
For school districts, it is a complicated equation. How much rigor is enough? At what point do higher standards cause struggling students to lose heart and drop out? What if a student follows a vocational path and later discovers college would be a better choice?
Patrick Godwin, superintendent of the Folsom-Cordova Unified School District, said schools need to be strong on both fronts. Folsom-Cordova, he said, is trying to ramp up academic rigor for all students, while also offering more career-technical courses in the culinary arts, technology and other fields.
Call The Bee's Deb Kollars, (916) 321-1090.
