Gas prices to soar in the spring

Gasoline prices will soon head north again, climbing as much as 20 to 25 cents a gallon higher by early March, experts predict.

Call it the cost that Californians pay for cleaner air.

Every winter, the state's refiners start converting their facilities to pricier fuel blends that will cut down on smog-forming gases in summer. At the same time, production will drop as refiners shut down facilities for regular maintenance.

"Gasoline prices may continue to come down for another week or so," said oil industry consultant David Hackett. But then, he warned, "it's going to go up really dramatically. Winter gasoline is so much cheaper to make the summer (fuel)."

That's an ominous sign for consumers who have already begun adjusting their habits to keep prices from sabotaging their budgets.

California motorists already pay 62 cents a gallon more to fill up than a year ago, according to AAA of Northern California. On Wednesday, the statewide average for regular was $3.13. In Sacramento, the average was $3.11, up 59 cents from last year.

"It's not a good starting point for the summer," said Bob Aldrich, a spokesman for the California Energy Commission. "Typically, prices go up during the summer. But these have not been typical years."

It was last May when gas prices skyrocketed to record highs across the state, topping $3.40 and then yo-yoing around the $3 mark for the rest of the year.

Crude oil prices have been at record highs, briefly exceeding $100 a barrel. Oil continues to trade in the $90 range.

"Crude oil prices normally hit their minimum around the new year," Hackett said.

Indeed, motorists have enjoyed a breather at the pump as prices slid 17 cents a gallon statewide – 14 cents locally over the past month.

"We have seen gas consumption decrease for more than a year in California. That is probably part of the reason we are seeing prices decline a bit," said Sean Comey of AAA of Northern California.

Even though no one is predicting $4-a-gallon gasoline this summer, a national survey released Wednesday by a Massachusetts think-tank found 71 percent of Americans expect it. More than half indicated they would cut back holiday travel or curb spending to counter the higher pump prices, the Civil Society Institute reported.

For public transportation agencies, the price spike has produced mixed results. Sacramento Regional Transit and the Bay Area Rapid Transit District haven't seen a correlation between high gas prices and increased ridership.

But Amtrak's Capitol Corridor service between Sacramento and the Bay Area saw a 14 percent jump in ridership between October 2006 and September 2007, the latest figures available. About 14 million passengers ride the train a year.

"We do believe that (the high price of gas) is one of the reasons for the continued growth," said Luna Salaver, spokeswoman for the Capitol Corridor Railway Service.

Some employers, too, have seen a change in commute habits as workers take them up on rebates and discounts for transit passes, shuttles to transportation hubs and special parking for car and van pools.

"We have been steadily receiving two to three ride-share permit (requests) every week," said Teri Munger, a spokeswoman at Intel Corp.'s Folsom campus.

At the state Franchise Tax Board, the sale of discount public transit tickets rose 21 percent over the fall. In September, the Elk Grove bus system started a special route to the agency's 5,000-employee Sacramento complex. Meanwhile, eight groups are organizing new van pools, which would add to the 17 now operating.

"Employees have embraced this idea. These guys are buying transit tickets like nuts," said John Barrett of the tax board.

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