Daniel Weintraub: Núñez is still trying to break through to governor

As time ticks down on any chance for legislators and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to agree this year on a bill to expand access to health insurance, Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez is trying to turn up the heat on the governor.

With a mix of legislative maneuvering, press conferences and interviews, Núñez is sending Schwarzenegger a message that the perpetually optimistic chief executive seems determined to ignore: Republican lawmakers are never going to vote for his plan.

Schwarzenegger is proposing a mix of taxes and fees on employers, doctors and hospitals to subsidize insurance for those who cannot afford it.

He also wants to require everyone to obtain coverage and require insurance companies to offer it to anyone who applies, regardless of pre-existing health conditions.

But as Núñez notes, that's simply too many taxes and mandates for Republican legislators to accept, and the sooner Schwarzenegger acknowledges that reality, the better.

The speaker says he intends to package the governor's plan as legislation and present it to the Assembly, where it will surely die. In fact, Núñez said, his own vote for the bill, which he will cast as a "courtesy," will likely be the only support the governor's plan receives.

"I'm going to take him from the stratosphere, and I am going to ground him," Núñez told me in an interview in his Capitol office. "He needs a little grounding. Nobody likes his plan."

Without GOP votes, Schwarzenegger couldn't get the two-thirds majority he needs to pass his plan in the Legislature, even if every Democrat voted for it. Once Schwarzenegger accepts that reality, Núñez said, the speaker hopes the governor will begin to negotiate in earnest with the Democrats. They are proposing a narrower bill but one that hits employers harder. It would force companies to provide insurance for their workers or pay a fee to the state, estimated at 7.5 percent of payroll, to finance coverage for employees who don't get it at the workplace.

"I just want him to engage," Núñez said of Schwarzenegger. "Let's get it done. The governor has got the power to do it. He is either going to do it or not. If he doesn't do it, he's failed."

Núñez rejects the idea of a compromise built around a new version of the governor's proposed fee on hospitals.

The latest proposal would raise $1.7 billion from private hospitals, which would be matched by $1.7 billion from the federal government. The new money would be used to boost reimbursement rates for hospitals that treat the poor, and expand eligibility for public insurance programs.

About 75 percent of hospitals would get back more in higher revenue than they pay in fees, according to a study by the California Hospital Association.

If that money were applied to the Democratic plan, it might be possible to reduce the burden on business that Núñez and his Senate counterpart, Don Perata, are proposing. But Núñez said while he favors the fee, he would want to add the hospital money on top of his current proposal, expanding it to cover more people.

"We're still short in my bill," he said. "We need more money right now.

"The hospital fee comes in handy.... It would be nice if we could do the hospital fee over and above the employer fee I have. That's how you really fund it."

Besides, Núñez said, the hospital fee still requires a two-thirds vote to pass because the Legislature's lawyer has ruled that it is a tax. So they are back to needing Republican votes and facing the challenge that hurdle represents.

One possible way out for the leaders is to forget about passing a bill in the Legislature and consider a ballot measure instead. The California Restaurant Association has already endorsed a sales tax increase, and other business groups might soon follow suit, in hopes of avoiding a mandate to cover their workers. But Núñez said he does not like that idea because he thinks employers should be forced to contribute.

Still, despite pessimism in the Capitol, Núñez insisted there is still time to reach an agreement. He said the situation reminds him of last year's negotiations over Assembly Bill 32, the state's landmark law to limit greenhouse gases.

That deal appeared dead many times before legislators and the governor finally agreed on a compromise.

"You build momentum on this thing," he said. "You just pick it up and move it and move it and move it, and then the stars align at the right time.

"(Schwarzenegger) will have 20 things he wants or 10 things or five things. He won't get them all, but he will get some of what he wants.

"I think if we kind of sit back and say, 'Well, we have too many differences,' then we are not going to get there. We need to just keep pushing and pushing and pushing."

Núñez is pushing, all right. And Schwarzenegger is pushing back. Until they start pulling together, in the same direction, their chances of getting a health care deal done will be next to nil.

About the writer:

• Reach The Bee's Daniel Weintraub at (916) 321-1914 or at dweintraub@sacbee.com. Read his blog about health care at www.sacbee.com/healthcare.