Negatives doom Clinton in '08?

WASHINGTON -- Hillary Rodham Clinton's opponents are hyping this bit of conventional wisdom: If she wins the Democratic nomination, her high negative ratings in polls will make it difficult for her to win the general election in November 2008.

Karl Rove, the guru behind President Bush's political career, framed this widely held view last month when he called Clinton a "fatally flawed" candidate.

"There is no front-runner who has entered the primary season with negatives as high as she has in the history of modern polling," Rove told conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh. "She's going into the general election with -- depending on what poll you look at -- in the high 40s on the negative side, and just below that on the positive side, and there's nobody who has ever won the presidency who started out in that kind of position."

But polling experts say that Clinton's negatives -- generally somewhere around 45 percent of people tell pollsters they view her unfavorably -- may not be politically fatal or even much of a drag.

How can that be? The fluid nature of politics, the New York senator's evolving profile and the Electoral College map combine to suggest that Clinton may not be too polarizing to win after all, several independent experts said.

"Nothing is completely locked in stone," said Michael Dimock, associate director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. "People shift, and contexts shift. The context people perceive her in has changed. ... There are opportunities for the balance to shift."

Unfavorable ratings in the 40s don't preclude victory in November. President Bush was elected in 2004 with negative ratings ranging into the mid-40s, about the same as those of Democratic nominee John Kerry.

Detractors say that in the tumult of a general election campaign, unfavorable ratings generally rise. But it's entirely possible that her negatives could stabilize or even decline as voters are reintroduced to her and she's matched against a Republican with negatives of his own.

Many Americans' image of Clinton was set in the 1990s when she was first lady. As a New York senator since 2001, she's changed her style considerably. When people tune in over the next year to weigh the presidential candidates, they'll see that Hillary Rodham Clinton vintage 2007-08 may not be quite what they remember. She may be able to re-brand her image in the public imagination.

For example, those who say they dislike her could change their minds "once the debates start and ... she cleans somebody's clock," said Larry Harris, principal at Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Clinton's own history shows that it's possible to reverse high negative ratings. In February 1996, a Pew poll showed her unfavorability rating at 54 percent. In 1998, it was 31 percent.

Then there's the Electoral College. Clinton's high negatives may be skewed because she's wildly unpopular in some places and less so in others..

"Take Alabama," Harris said. "Everybody hates her there, just about. But guess what: She's gonna lose Alabama anyway. The election is going to be won in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida ... "

About the writer:

• The McClatchy Washington Bureau's Matt Stearns can be reached at (202)383-6009 or mstearns@mcclatchydc.com.