Governor edges Boxer in matchup

U.S. Sen. Arnold Schwarzenegger, rubbing elbows in the upper house with his uncle, Democrat Edward Kennedy?

Don't laugh. It could happen, according to a Field Poll released Monday.

The Republican governor, termed out of office in 2010, remains very popular with California voters and would give incumbent U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer a fight in what has been a solidly Democratic state, the poll found.

When the hypothetical question was put to registered voters in Field's most recent round of polling Oct. 11-21, Schwarzenegger had a one-point edge, 44 percent to 43 percent.

"The fact that Schwarzenegger is one point ahead in a state dominated by Democrats ... is another demonstration of his unique draw," said poll director Mark DiCamillo.

But Roy Behr, a Santa Monica-based political consultant who advised Boxer in her 1998 and 2004 re-election campaigns, said the early numbers are "a great sign of strength" for Boxer.

"It's important to remember that she always has a tough race," Behr said. In Schwarzenegger, he added, "you're talking about the best-known, most visible politician in the state. For her to be tied with him at the start of the campaign is just a sign of how good of a position she's in."

Rob Stutzman, a GOP political consultant and former Schwarzenegger communications director, noted that Boxer – in defeating Republicans Bruce Herschensohn, Matt Fong and Bill Jones – has never drawn a high-profile, well-funded GOP opponent.

"It would be a great Senate race in a state that hasn't had a great Senate race since 1994," Stutzman said.

But he said he was skeptical Schwarzenegger would want to be in the Senate "with months of being bogged down in Washington, getting caught up in legislative shenanigans. He's not a guy who's into wasting time."

Still, he added, "this gives us something to talk about the next couple of years."

Overall, Schwarzenegger won high marks from 56 percent of voters – including 51 percent of Democrats and 56 percent of self-described nonpartisans – continuing his rebound from the 2005 special-election pounding that led to a 20-point drop in his popularity. Forty-one percent think he's moderate, compared to 34 percent who call him conservative or 15 percent who think he's liberal.

"He's crossing the aisle," DiCamillo said. "Political figures are usually seen through the prism of party. For Schwarzenegger, that doesn't seem to be the case."

Californians haven't elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1988.

In the hypothetical 2010 matchup, Field found Schwarzenegger capturing about a fifth of Democrats and nearly 40 percent of nonpartisans and strong majorities in the Central Valley, San Diego and Orange counties and rural Northern California.

Boxer would dominate in vote-heavy Los Angeles, the Bay Area and among Latinos, African American and Asian American voters.

Rosemary Carmona, a Democrat from North Highlands, told pollsters there was no way she would support Schwarzenegger over Boxer, particularly because the governor has not been able to negotiate a health care overhaul at the Capitol.

"Once in a while I'll vote for a Republican," Carmona said, but the governor's efforts on health care "look just like lip service. He's really good at that. I don't see him helping the health system. It's getting worse instead of better."

Not all Democrats who responded to the poll backed Boxer.

Granite Bay's Camille Helland said she soured on Boxer after the senator first sponsored legislation to give federal recognition to a Sonoma County Indian tribe, then recused herself after her son, attorney Doug Boxer, started working with the tribe to locate a casino there. Boxer said tribal advocates had promised her they had no interest in a casino.

But Helland didn't buy it. "I just lost faith in her," Helland said. "I have a lot of faith in Gov. Schwarzenegger, even though I never voted for him. I trust he's doing the job for the right reasons. I don't think he's in there for self-glorification. I truly think he's trying to make the state a better place. ... Up against Boxer I would vote for him."

The pollsters at Field also asked respondents what they thought of Schwarzenegger seeking the presidency, a job for which the foreign-born governor is constitutionally ineligible.

Nearly two-thirds – 63 percent – said they were "not inclined" to support him.

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