Legislative gridlock shapes up for 2008

California faces a $10 billion budget deficit, turf battles have broken out in the Legislature and lawmakers are on edge while waiting for voters to decide if they can serve longer in their houses.

As 2007 draws to a close with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's "Year of Health Care" for universal coverage on life support, political pundits say 2008 will likely present too many distractions to be a productive legislative year.

"Major legislation – global warming, water, health care – those only get done in the best of legislative times," said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book, which handicaps the state's political races.

Even the eternally optimistic Schwarzenegger has tamped down expectations. What he previously proclaimed would be "The Year of Education" is now going to be "a multiyear effort," according to education lobbyists who were briefed on the upcoming year by the governor.

Assemblyman Mark Leno, chairman of the Assembly Appropriations Committee, is urging his colleagues to be realistic. The San Francisco Democrat noted his panel last year held up $6.5 billion in spending requests and approved only $500 million.

"My suggestion is that we do bills with the least money attached," Leno said. "This is not a time to be doing costly legislation."

Complicating matters are intramural turf battles in the Democratic-controlled Legislature that could bottle up legislation.

In the most high-profile race, Leno is running to unseat Sen. Carol Migden, D-San Francisco, in a race that has angered Democrats in the Senate who want to head off similar challenges.

This year, only three of Leno's bills cleared the Legislature and were signed by the governor compared with 12 in 2006.

"It's obvious that in any election year, there will be election-year politics," said Tim Hodson, director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento. "People will say, 'Let's not have someone given the opportunity to look good.'"

Sen. Mark Ridley-Thomas and Assemblyman Mervyn Dymally, the incoming and outgoing chairman of the Legislature's Black Caucus, are also at odds.

Dymally recently withdrew his support for Councilman Mike Gipson in Tuesday's special election to succeed Rep. Laura Richardson in the Assembly and endorsed Warren Furatani.

Ridley-Thomas, who supports Gipson, called Dymally's about-face "baffling" and charged that Dymally "betrayed his caucus." Gipson is African American; Furatani is Asian American.

Ridley-Thomas, D-Los Angeles, is running for the Los Angeles County supervisor seat that is being vacated by the retiring Yvonne Brathwaite Burke.

Dymally, D-Compton, said he plans to endorse Los Angeles City Councilman Bernard Parks for the seat. But he said he will not allow the race to affect his votes in the Legislature.

"I don't think it strains our legislative agenda, although it strains relationships," Dymally said. "You vote for motherhood and vote against sin."

Meanwhile, lawmakers are awaiting the outcome of Proposition 93 on the Feb. 5 ballot.

The measure would shorten from 14 to 12 the total number of years lawmakers could serve but allow them to serve all their time in a single house.

If the measure passes, Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez, D-Los Angeles, and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, D-Oakland, would be allowed to retain their leadership positions.

If it fails, the jockeying to replace them would intensify and affect the legislative year. Publicly, potential challengers are saying they remain committed to the current leaders.

But the handicapping has been going on for months with more than a dozen names being mentioned in the Assembly. In the Senate, however, two candidates – Sen. Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento and Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Los Angeles – have emerged as the front-runners.

Steinberg, 48, is completing his seventh year in the Legislature. Padilla, 34, has served only one year but has been viewed as a rising star since he became president of the Los Angeles City Council at 28.

"Don Perata is our leader and I'm with him all the way," Steinberg said. "But if term limits fail, then next year around this time of year there will be a turnover and I've made no secret that if that happens, I'm interested."

Padilla is more circumspect, saying, "Maybe I'm old-fashioned, but these are member-to-member issues that are best handled within the (Democratic) caucus."

But he acknowledges that, "I'm interested in serving my colleagues in whatever capacity I can that will allow me to contribute my skills and experience."

Hodson said despite the turf battles and gamesmanship in the Legislature "the reality is that a budget will have to be passed."

Last year, an impasse between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate led to a 52-day stalemate.

But Hodson believes that despite the state's $10 billion deficit, 2008 may bring an on-time budget because lawmakers facing close elections do not want to risk incurring the wrath of voters.

"2006 was an election year and things got down," Hodson said. "An election year makes it more difficult, but not impossible."

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• Call Aurelio Rojas, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5545.