Dan Walters: Population increases drive state

Just before Christmas, the state's demographers released an update on California's population, having calculated that as of July 1, it had increased by some 438,000 souls during the previous year and stood at just under 38 million.

A few days later, the Census Bureau weighed in with its own estimate, pegging California's population at more than a million fewer than the state number and thus continuing an ongoing conflict between state and federal demographers about growth in the nation's most populous state.

Simply put, the Census Bureau believes that California has lost much more population to other states – some 1.2 million since 2000 – than the state Department of Finance, which believes there has been very little, if any, such loss.

Whatever the true figure, the new data are another reminder that California remains an ever-expanding and ever-changing society, and dealing with that fact is its most important and most neglected political issue.

Although Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and state legislators are still patting themselves on the back for enacting nearly $40 billion in public works bonds in 2006, it was, at best, a down payment on an infrastructure need that is several times that large and, as the population numbers imply, will continue to grow.

Those 438,000 additional Californians (the state number) will generate a need for at least 150,000 new housing units, which means that while the housing industry has been clobbered and there are many vacancies, within a year or two, demand will catch up. Deciding where and how ever-increasing numbers of Californians will be housed is a major issue for state and local governments.

Those 438,000 additional Californians, too, will mean at least a quarter-million additional cars and trucks on a road system that is already severely stressed. And they'll expect to turn on their faucets and have water, underscoring the long-standing political impasse over water development.

The single most important factor in California's population growth is a continued high rate of births. Baby production declined somewhat in the 1990s, thanks largely to a severe recession that propelled more than a million Californians to leave the state in that decade, but has picked up sharply in this decade. And that means that the leveling-off of school enrollment – and even declines in some communities – will end soon as a new wave of youngsters hits the classroom.

When one drills into the data, the fuller dimension of California's population growth – the absolutely unique level of cultural and ethnic diversity it has generated – becomes evident.

While the state is, albeit slightly, a net loser in state-to-state migration, immigration from other countries remains strong, about 200,000 a year in the most recent estimates, and other data tell us that over half of the state's 500,000-plus babies are born to immigrant mothers.

The state's white population is continuing to decline, at least in proportionate terms, and already is well below 50 percent, while Latino and Asian American communities expand, driven by high immigration and/or birth rates.

Nevertheless, the vast majority of voters are white, middle-aged homeowners, and a constant political subtheme is the gap between the priorities of voters and those of the much more diverse population of nonvoters. Immigration itself is the single most important issue to California voters, several polls have established, and we have seen sharp political clashes over it and such issues as affirmative action and bilingual education.

Growth and cultural change, moreover, when coupled with economic evolution, drive both the state's perpetual budget crisis and the angst over extending health insurance to millions of working poor families.

About the writer:

• Call The Bee's Dan Walters, (916) 321-1195. Back columns, www.sacbee.com/walters