Turnout may set primary record

With California poised to play a pivotal role in today's highly competitive Super Tuesday presidential contests, a record 8.9 million primary voters are projected to participate statewide, according to the Field Poll.

The election has energized voters because it is the first presidential primary since 1952 in which no incumbent or sitting vice president is running for the White House and neither major party has yet to settle on its nominee.

Democratic registrants, typically more fickle participants than Republicans, are likely to vote in greater numbers than usual this year, Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said.

"The turnout (percentage) among Democrats will be about equal to the turnout among Republicans, which almost never happens," he said. "You've got this very exciting race, and you have these candidates on the Democratic side who are very well liked by the Democratic electorate. If there's a problem, it's, 'Which one do I like most?' "

Republican turnout may be determined in large part by how successful candidates Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are in spurring the party's conservative base to vote, DiCamillo said.

The projected 8.9 million voters would be a record for a California primary, but not for all elections – more voters have participated in past November presidential contests. Field Poll anticipates 38.8 percent of Californians eligible to vote will do so in this election, the highest percentage in a primary since 1980, when Republicans first nominated California favorite son Ronald Reagan.

The big turnout, a record number of absentee voters and recent changes in voting equipment will delay results, officials have said. The final tally of presidential delegates, based on outcomes in each congressional district, may not be known for days.

Candidates and their surrogates worked Monday to urge their supporters to vote – and to persuade the remaining high number of undecided voters to back them. Romney held an event late Monday in Long Beach. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger had an event Monday for Sen. John McCain at a phone bank in Gardena.

In Sacramento, former President Clinton addressed a crowd of about 600 people at Cal Expo, urging supporters to persuade their friends to vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, particularly the 18 percent of likely Democratic voters who remained undecided as of Saturday.

"All the surveys show, actually, there are still a fair amount of undecided voters out there, people you could reach between now and tomorrow," he said.

He even suggested that people post pictures of his event on Facebook, a Web site popular among young people.

Nearby at Sacramento State, Obama student supporters held a rally with Sen. Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, and former state Sen. Deborah Ortiz. More than 100 people filled a small auditorium during the lunch hour.

Kim Mack, a field organizer, asked how many students use text messaging on their phones. Nearly everyone raised a hand.

"Send a text message to everybody in your address book that simply says 'Obama,' " she said. "What's that going to take you, 60 seconds?"

The Field Poll predicts a record number of absentee voters, an estimated 4.1 million, which is expected to represent 46 percent of the electorate.

According to the Field projection, Democrats are expected to constitute 45 percent of likely voters, and Republicans will be 37 percent. Independents and third-party voters will make up the remaining 18 percent. Roughly half the independents will vote in the Democratic primary. They can't vote Republican because the GOP contest is a closed election.

Unlike her predecessors, Secretary of State Debra Bowen did not release turnout projections Monday. She declined to make a prediction because of the unusual factors surrounding this contest. Those factors include this being the earliest primary California has held and the fact the races remain wide open, spokeswoman Kate Folmar said.

About 2,000 supporters greeted Romney near the Long Beach airport to hear the candidate make an election eve pitch for votes in what appears to be a tightening California primary.

"California is huge," Romney told reporters after the rally. "There's something happening here in California that's big. People in California are really concentrating on this race with renewed attention. … I'm getting greater support in California than I had a week ago, and we wanted to come back and put an exclamation point on the kind of support I'm getting here in California."

Kathy Kirchhoff of Long Beach attended the Romney rally with her husband and two children, drawn to the event by polls showing the former Massachusetts governor narrowing the gap in California against McCain.

"It's amazing how quickly things seem to be shifting," said Kirchhoff, 45, an investment banker.

John J. Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, said a high Democratic turnout would likely benefit Obama because much of his support has come from first-time and inconsistent voters.

"The bigger the Democratic turnout, the better it is for Obama," Pitney said. "A big turnout would indicate younger voters and people who ordinarily wouldn't show up are voting, which helps him."

Jo Danti, a 58-year-old Democrat backing Clinton, called this the most exciting election since 1968, when she supported Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, who was assassinated on the night of the California primary.

"I don't think Obama is the Robert F. Kennedy," Danti said. "I think Hillary is the Robert F. Kennedy."

Yet other Democrats said they were just as enthusiastic about Obama's candidacy.

Clarence Hensel, a 37-year-old Sacramento decline-to-state voter, attended President Clinton's rally with his wife, Melissa, and their friends.

"I pretty much made my decision for Obama, but I'd still like to hear everything down to the last minute," Hensel said. "I just think he represents my generation better as far as a whole new fresh look at how we can take the country a different direction."

About the writer:

• Call Kevin Yamamura, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5548. Judy Lin and Andy Furillo of The Bee Capitol Bureau contributed to this report.