GOP dares to think McCain can win state

SAN FRANCISCO – Sen. John McCain arrived at the last California Republican Party convention in September as a struggling presidential candidate whose chances were so grim that he generated less buzz than Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and state Sen. Tom McClintock.

But less than three weeks after his California victory propelled him toward the nomination, it's all about McCain on this rainy February GOP convention weekend in San Francisco.

At a gathering that attracts the conservative activists who once saw McCain as too liberal for their party's nomination, the Arizona senator is now the only one with volunteers handing out stickers and manning a booth to appease whatever concerns the GOP base has about his credentials.

Some are even saying what would have been unthinkable six months ago: a Republican can win a general-election race in California, a state where Democrats own a 10-percentage-point registration advantage and no GOP candidate has won since President George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Delegates conceded that winning California remains a difficult proposition. Still, they are convinced McCain has the right ingredients to make it competitive.

His weaknesses in the primary, such as his more moderate stances on global warming and immigration, could appeal to the same middle-of-the-road voters who overwhelmingly re-elected Schwarzenegger in 2006, they said.

"I think that when you have a candidate that is going to focus on simple, straightforward Reagan-type values, like low taxes, and leave some of these other social values out of the picture, then California voters support Republicans," said Richard Loa, a Republican delegate from West Sacramento who backed Rudy Giuliani in the primary before switching to McCain.

"I think the same type of voter who supported Arnold Schwarzenegger will also support John McCain."

McCain made a point last week of declaring he would compete in California. His state campaign chairman, former Secretary of State Bill Jones, came to the convention to convince Republicans that they can win the state.

"He has proven repeatedly that he can reach across the aisle and bring conservative Democrats and independents over to support him," Jones said. "In fact, he's been criticized from time to time for being too accomplished at that. So, that's the kind of candidate you need for California."

McCain, however, could face political pitfalls for his positions on the Iraq war and abortion. He supported sending more troops to Iraq – a position he said this week has led to progress in the country – but most Californians remain opposed to the conflict and the troop surge.

California has elected two Republican governors since supporting Bush in 1988, but both Govs. Pete Wilson and Schwarzenegger supported abortion rights. In contrast, McCain has said during the primary campaign he would like to see Roe v. Wade overturned. He also supported a Supreme Court decision last year that upheld a ban on so-called partial-birth abortions.

Jones acknowledged that McCain "has been a consistent pro-life person his whole career in Congress" but said it wouldn't doom his chances here.

"People respect consistency," Jones said. "People don't have to agree with every single position the senator has, but they have to respect him. … I would just argue that people can hold their respective positions on that issue and still have respect for each other."

Some said it is too early to determine how McCain would fare in California, given that the Democratic nominee has not been selected.

In hypothetical matchups against Democratic Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, McCain was competitive against both candidates, according to a Field Poll released right before the Feb. 5 primary. He was only two percentage points behind Clinton and seven points behind Obama, who has appeal among the same independent voters who like McCain.

"It's not unheard of for Republicans to do well in the state," said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo. "It's just that they haven't done so recently, and the reason has been that the (presidential) candidate hasn't been appealing to Californians. But McCain seems to have an appeal. He has that independent streak that Californians want."

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