Budget analysis: Almost never on time and no one can agree why

The state budget will be late again this year, barring some fiscal or political force that has yet to assert itself.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who will offer a revised plan Wednesday, says the soft economy has contributed to a gap between expected revenues and expenditures that could reach $20 billion for the year beginning July 1 – about a fifth of the $101 billion plan he proposed in January.

But that isn't necessarily the only reason the budget probably will be tardy.

Lawmakers have not met the June 15 constitutional deadline to send the governor an approved budget since 1986, and have accomplished the task only four times since 1977. Only 10 times in the last 31 years have the Legislature and governor combined to get a budget in place by the beginning of the fiscal year on July 1.

Deadlines tumble in years with deficits and years with surpluses. Neither Republican nor Democratic governors have had much success.

Ask a roomful of budget veterans why the Legislature and governor can't seem to deliver on time and you'll get a roomful of answers.

In no particular order:

• The requirement for a two-thirds vote stifles the ruling party's (usually Democrats) majority will, giving the minority (usually Republicans) effective veto power.

Voters added the supermajority requirement to the constitution in 1933, although it only kicked in if spending was to increase by 5 percent or more over the previous budget.

That lasted until 1962, when nearly 80 percent of voters agreed to remove the 5 percent spending cap provision, thus requiring all budgets be approved with a two-thirds vote. Supporters said Proposition 16 that year would remove wording that was "without present-day significance."

Voters soundly defeated Proposition 56 in 2004, which would have let the Legislature approve a budget with 55 percent of the vote. But it also would have lowered the vote threshold for raising taxes, drawing widespread opposition from anti-tax groups.

Only two other states – Arkansas and Rhode Island – require more than a majority vote to approve a budget.

• Various voter-approved budget rules, notably the constitutional guarantee for minimum school funding, limit policymakers' choices for cuts. Other ballot measures largely protect transportation funds and local government payments.

Some of the rules can be suspended – with enough votes in the Legislature – but those decisions can be politically perilous, particularly if they take on a powerful special interest, such as public school teachers.

• Lawmakers are calendar-challenged: They have more than five months from the unveiling of the governor's proposal in January until the June 15 deadline but never seem to get down to real work on the big decisions until the proposal is revised in May based on April tax returns and updated spending estimates.

Legislative leaders counter that economic projections can change dramatically between the holidays and income tax season and they need to wait to make choices with more precision. In the meantime, they say, budget subcommittees review dozens of programs in the governor's proposal.

• Court decisions through the years have ordered the state to pay most school expenses, health and welfare programs required by federal law and state employee payrolls even without an approved budget.

That reduces the political consequences for tardiness, making it easier for legislators to hold out through the summer based on ideology and encouraging brinkmanship.

"Everybody is playing to the sound bite of the moment," said Steve Merksamer, lawyer and chief of staff to former Gov. George Deukmejian. "The courts have jumped in and taken the consequences off the table. Then it becomes more of a PR battle about who's holding up the budget."

• Lawmakers draw their own districts, and they're rigged for one party or the other, resulting in a Legislature full of hard-line liberals and conservatives. That dynamic provides no motivation for finding a middle ground on spending and taxing decisions and could lead to political consequences in party primaries for those who compromise.

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• Call Bee Capitol Bureau Chief Dan Smith, (916) 321-5249.