Analysis: Schwarzenegger faces rough sledding on state budget negotiations

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger held town hall-style meetings everywhere but Sacramento this spring, making the point that the state's budget obstructions reside in the capital city.

He asked leaders in Eureka and Garden Grove to demand that lawmakers resolve budget problems in April as the state faced a deficit as large as $20 billion, yet his message had little impact.

As he releases his revised May budget today, Schwarzenegger must broker a deal in Sacramento with legislators who are disinclined to reach compromise on their own, skeptical of his intentions and believe his clout has waned in the Capitol.

"It's difficult to reign when you have a down economy, a down state budget and you're forced to make cuts, especially when you don't have your own party on your side and a changing of the guard," said Jaime Regalado, executive director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute of Public Affairs. "In a sense, the governor is a man unto himself. He's on a lonely island."

Legislative leaders and Schwarzenegger haven't met as a group since February to discuss the budget. He must deal with Republicans who refuse to raise taxes and Democrats who don't want to accept cuts in education and social programs.

He must do all of this in the face of significant negotiating hurdles.

Schwarzenegger lost his chief Democratic ally Tuesday when Fabian Núñez stepped down as Assembly speaker. His relationship with Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata has been strained.

The governor also has little sway with his fellow Republicans, who held out last year for 52 days before providing the necessary votes to approve a less problematic budget. He has frustrated the conservative GOP by striking deals with Democrats without Republican support and telling his own party that it is "dying at the box office."

Schwarzenegger recently rankled some rural legislators by suggesting they lacked a worldview necessary to tackle major public works problems because they hail from "those little towns."

Another problem is that Schwarzenegger lacks strong relationships with individual lawmakers, said Sen. Sheila Kuehl, D-Santa Monica. She was engaged in negotiations last year on health care that ultimately died in her Senate Health Committee.

The governor has been less hands-on than his predecessors, she noted, describing him as "much more standoffish and relying on pronouncements."

"I think he has lost influence with legislators since his (2003) election," Kuehl said. "He came in with an enormous amount of good will, and I think an enormous amount of expectations on the part of legislators that he would be a person who would roll up his sleeves with us and see what could be done. Instead, over the years, we were pretty much handed his ideas with very little flexibility on his part."

From a transactional view, however, Schwarzenegger still has unique powers at his disposal. He can promise funding for projects in lawmakers' districts and offer appointments in exchange for a budget vote. He can look favorably on a legislator's priority bills.

The governor, who continues to attract media attention as a celebrity, also could promise political support in future elections. Or he could travel to legislators' districts and criticize them. In 2004, for instance, he held rallies at shopping malls and once attacked legislators as "girlie men."

"Governors always have clout no matter how many times legislators may proclaim a governor is irrelevant," said Tim Hodson, director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento.

Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear would not describe the governor's negotiating plans but said he considers legislators his "partners."

"He has maintained strong relationships with all four caucuses and has demonstrated his ability to work with them throughout his administration," McLear said.

Schwarzenegger had relatively easy budget negotiations his first three years; his longest first-term dispute lasted a month into the 2004-05 fiscal year.

About the writer:

• Call Kevin Yamamura, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5548.