New initiative isn't a shoo-in

California voters eight years ago overwhelmingly approved a law against gay marriage, but as they prepare to go to the polls again in the wake of Thursday's California Supreme Court decision, the outcome is less certain.

Unlike 2000, when 61 percent voted to put a gay marriage ban in state law, the "California Marriage Protection Act" would lock the ban in the constitution, negating the court's action. The measure is expected to qualify for the Nov. 4 ballot.

Pollsters say voters' views on gay marriage are more complex than the last time they considered the question, as surveys show rising acceptance in California for same-sex unions.

"The vote itself on the constitutional amendment will be wide open," said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo. "It's all age-related. One generation is replacing another. And the generation that is coming in now is much more supportive of gay marriage than the one that was here eight years ago."

In a 2006 state Field Poll, voters opposed gay marriage 51 percent to 43 percent. But support was much stronger among newer voters.

Fifty-eight percent of voters born in the 1980s and 51 percent born in the 1970s said they supported same-sex marriage. That compared with 41 percent for voters born in the 1960s and 25 percent for those born before 1940.

DiCamillo said a surge of younger voters – drawn by likely Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama – could negate a ballot backlash by older voters and social conservatives over the state court decision.

The court decision overturning Proposition 22 is also stirring political wagering over its impact on the presidential contest and other races in California.

Sacramento Republican political consultant Dave Gilliard predicted the decision could inspire voters "in a very bleak, low-turnout year for Republicans" to turn out for GOP candidates and a new ballot initiative seeking to amend the California Constitution to ban gay marriage.

"The court's Prop. 22 ruling may just have saved the Republican Party and our candidates from a disaster in November," he said.

Democratic consultant Bill Carrick conceded the issue is sure to be a political attention-grabber. "It is going to be a big deal. Every politician in this state is going to be confronted on what their position is on this issue," he said.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzengger, who opposes the constitutional amendment, said Thursday he may not do any campaigning against it, though he said he will make it clear he thinks it is a "big mistake."

"I think we have bigger fish to fry than (asking) 'Do people have a right, if they are gay, to get married or not?'" Schwarzenegger told The Bee editorial board.

Thursday's court decision comes as Secretary of State Debra Bowen is tabulating petition signatures to certify the measure, which would ask voters to amend the state constitution to declare: "Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California."

An open question is how the gay marriage issue – and likely ballot initiative – will affect the presidential race in California.

"This (state Supreme Court) decision is going to turn California state politics on its head," said Republican political analyst Dan Schnur. "But it's difficult to see any of the three presidential candidates taking a position on a California ballot initiative. They're probably going to say it's up to the voters to decide."

The two leading Democratic candidates, Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, oppose same-sex marriage but support civil unions for gay couples. Republican John McCain endorsed a 2006 Arizona initiative defining marriage as only between a man and a woman but voted against a federal constitutional amendment against gay marriage.

Democratic consultant Garry South said Proposition 22 was put on the state ballot in 2000 "to try to mess around with the presidential race." But he said it had little impact.

Gilliard said the Supreme Court ruling is an instant seller in Republican primaries as candidates jump on a traditional voter "turnout driver."

In the Sacramento region's 4th Congressional District race, GOP candidate Doug Ose rushed out a statement calling the court decision "an affront to the very values that unite us." A press release by opponent Tom McClintock called it "a travesty of judicial activism" and slammed Ose's record on gay marriage.

Randy Thomasson of the Campaign for Children and Families – which is backing the new ballot measure – said the court decision will "spur Californians to go to the polls to override the judges."

But Democratic strategist Darry Sragow said the issue will stir only a small, intense sector of the electorate in November. He said most voters will turn out for something else: "the economy and the price of gas."

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• Call Peter Hecht, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5539.