McClintock's 4th District win pits Brown vs. doubters again

The last time Charlie Brown ran against conventional wisdom, he narrowly lost in a decidedly Republican district where Rep. John Doolittle hadn't failed to win with less than 60 percent of the vote in 14 years.

Now, two years after losing to Doolittle by 49 to 46 percent, the former Air Force helicopter pilot and combat veteran faces skepticism again. This time, his doubters say he can't win without Doolittle in the race.

Brown in 2006 ran against a Washington culture of corruption, lambasting Doolittle's controversial ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Now he will face a popular conservative, state Sen. Tom McClintock, who emerged with a lopsided victory over former Sacramento Rep. Doug Ose after being vastly outspent in a combative GOP primary.

On election night, McClintock, an outsider from Thousand Oaks, staked his claim to the district.

After defeating Ose by 54 percent to 39 percent, he vowed to be a champion for conservatives "who want their Constitution back and want their country back." He quickly portrayed Brown as politically incompatible with the district.

Brown defeated legal philosopher John Wolfgram with 88 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary. And he argued that he can win in November despite the 47 percent to 31 percent Republican voter registration advantage and the district's status as one of the nation's most conservative seats.

Brown pointed to his military service and community standing as a 17-year Roseville resident running against a Southern California lawmaker representing a state district 400 miles away.

"The conventional wisdom said I couldn't get close to a wounded John Doolittle two years ago," Brown said. "John Doolittle is no longer in the race, and the Republicans had to do a statewide talent search to find somebody who they thought who could beat me.

"But I live here and I know this district. I know what it's like to go out and talk to people as a friend and neighbor."

Despite his outsider status, Republican consultant Dave Gilliard said McClintock's fiscal conservative and anti-government message will easily prevail in the sprawling district stretching from Sacramento suburbs to the Oregon border.

"In this case, the conventional wisdom is right," Gilliard said. "It is a safe Republican seat. "That being said, even in safe seats, Republicans have to be very wary this year. They have to mind their p's and q's. I think McClintock will do that."

Democrats point to a special-election upset in Mississippi, where Democrat Travis Childers easily won a congressional race over Republican Greg Davis, in a district similar in registration to California's 4th District. The Mississippi contest followed Democratic wins in Republican seats in Louisiana and Illinois.

Peter Brodnitz, a Democratic pollster in Washington D.C. hired by the Brown campaign, argued that the renowned surefire Republican seat could also turn blue. He argued that significant numbers of voters in the district are pessimistic about the direction of the country.

"Brown is running in a very nonpartisan way as someone who is trying to bring honorable public service to Congress," Brodnitz said. Despite the GOP's voter registration advantage, fewer 4th District voters now identify themselves as rock-ribbed Republicans.

McClintock's pollster, Val Smith, said Brown avoided a serious primary challenge while airing a patriotic television ad touting his military service and work with veterans. He said when he showed the ad to his communications studies class at California State University, Sacramento, most students thought it was a Republican spot.

Two years ago, Brown was a candidate stridently opposed to the war in Iraq. He was attacked by Doolittle as a card-carrying member of the American Civil Liberties Union. Now Brown's campaign slogan is "patriotism before partisanship."

Smith said Brown has high name identification and may benefit from fallout from Ose's relentlessly negative campaign against McClintock. But he said any Brown bump will be short-lived.

"He (Brown) is running as a conservative Republican and he is not going to be able to do that in the general election," Smith said. "What is going to bring him down is that the district is simply too conservative and too Republican, and he is not going to be able to sell himself that way without destroying his own base."

Mark DiCamillo, director of the California Field Poll, said Brown could be helped by a sagging economy and an unusual political year.

"I think just the economic tenor of the times and the negative view that Californians have toward the Bush administration could lead to stronger performances by out-of-power candidates to defeat Republican incumbents or candidates," DiCamillo said. "It could be very competitive in that district when, in good economic times or normal times, it wouldn't be."

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• Call Peter Hecht, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5539.