Ed Fishbein

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Ed Fishbein: California's woes might be a sneak preview for the nation

Published: Sunday, Jul. 5, 2009 - 12:00 am | Page 6E
Last Modified: Sunday, Jul. 5, 2009 - 10:04 am

Much of the rest of the nation seems to be getting a good laugh out of California's budget fiasco. The undercurrent in many of the television and print reports seems to be that the self-indulgent Left Coasters are getting exactly what they deserve. And while schadenfreude – the German word for taking pleasure in the misfortune of others – is never pretty, we certainly deserve much of the scorn.

But it would be unwise for the out-of-state audience savoring the spectacle in Sacramento to assume it holds no lessons for anyone outside our borders. Because the "California Disease" could very well be headed to a theater near them.

The reason isn't just that many other state governments face serious fiscal problems, with some of their deficits equaling California's, as a percentage of revenue. Nor is it the unique institutional factors that make California's Legislature so dysfunctional – the mandated spending, the gerrymandered districts that guarantee seats to the ideologues of both parties, the two-thirds vote required to pass a spending plan.

The reason that out-of-staters should look to us for more than entertainment is that whether or not they know it, they will likely soon face challenges much worse than a $26 billion budget deficit. And as in California, there seems to be a decided dearth of folks in power who have much interest in reality-based solutions.

You can start with the other deficit – the federal one – which this year is expected to come in about $2 trillion, and not go down by much in the years that follow. As a percentage of the economy, that is a level that would deeply embarrass your average banana republic. A lot of smart people are convinced it will mean serious inflation down the road.

Our health care system consumes about one of every six dollars spent in the United States – about twice the rate of other advanced industrialized countries. Its piece of the economy goes up every year. For that modest sum, we get a system that still leaves about 44 million folks uninsured, and many of the rest worried that if they actually do get a serious illness, they might be bankrupted.

Oil? We remain dependent on the output of some of the world's most unstable areas – just as many experts contend that global production is peaking.

The list could go on. The point is that the nation as a whole – like California in all the years that the budget crisis took shape – has willfully avoided confronting the ticking time bombs in front of it. And while it's far from clear that the public both here and nationally has any interest in doing so, it would be nice if politicians genuinely tried – if for no other reason than the novelty.

Instead, what we get are public posturing, half-measures and the unspoken hope that because we muddled through in the past, we'll continue to do so in the future.

It hasn't quite worked out that way with the state budget. I used to liken it to a car wreck – unfortunate, but not really my problem. But as time went on, it became harder to ignore the fact that its impact will go way beyond embarrassing the folks in the Capitol. We've all seen the victims list. State employees face a 14 percent pay cut. Vulnerable people with nowhere else to go face devastating cuts to their services.

When that happens, the condescension from out-of-state might die down a bit. And maybe it will be replaced by some serious fear, which could be a good thing.

Because we are all Californians. Many folks just don't know it yet.


Reach Ed Fishbein at efishbein@sacbee.com or (916) 321-1907.


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