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As markets plunge, so do oil prices

Hooray! But it means the economy has run out of gas

Published: Saturday, Oct. 11, 2008 - 12:00 am | Page 1B
Last Modified: Saturday, Oct. 11, 2008 - 3:26 pm

While most of the nation watched open-mouthed as the stock market plunged this week, a wisp of good news has gone comparatively unnoticed: Oil and gas prices have plummeted.

Overnight, the average price of regular unleaded gasoline nationwide went to $3.35 on Friday, down 5 cents a gallon from Thursday, according to AAA. A month ago, the U.S. price was $3.67, and the record high of $4.11 was reached on July 17.

In California, Friday's average was $3.53 a gallon, down only slightly from Thursday's $3.55 but significantly lower than last month's $3.85 and the June 19 high of $4.61.

In Sacramento, Friday's average price was $3.47, 32 cents cheaper than a month ago.

In unison, energy analysts pointed to the price of oil.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude for December delivery fell $8.63, or 10 percent, on Friday to $77.99 per barrel. That's a 13-month low and a far cry from the all-time high of $147.27 set July 11.

Some analysts are now predicting that crude could drop as low as $50 a barrel, a development that could push per-gallon gas prices into the low $3 range.

Naturally, this good news is accompanied by bad news. The reason prices are falling: the economic turmoil that's sweeping the world.

"The macroeconomic downturn, that's clearly what's driving the price of oil … that and (decreased) demand, which is also related to the downturn," said Severin Borenstein, director of the University of California Energy Institute.

Just last month, Borenstein said the price of gasoline dropping to around $3 a gallon would not be welcome news because it likely would be the "result of a massive worldwide recession."

On Friday, he said, "Trashing the world economy is one way to get cheaper gasoline, but it's just not the way most people want to go."

Asked how low oil and gas prices might go, Borenstein noted, "I'd be hard-pressed to say … but I know that OPEC is wringing their hands and might decrease their output because they discovered that $100 a barrel is a reasonable price."

AAA spokesman Michael Geeser said gasoline below $3 a gallon is a possibility if crude falls below $50 a barrel. But he also said the economic circumstances accompanying such a gas price would likely be painful.

"I suppose if it got as low as $50 a barrel, perhaps, we could see gas for less than $3," he said. "But it's all kind of speculation at this point, and as we learned this summer, that's not always reliable. … The way the economy has forced this downward demand has not really been seen before. … Crude oil could drop even more so, without a big cut in production from OPEC."

At gas stations in Sacramento on Friday, motorists reveled in the lower-priced gas – but the economic upheaval was causing deep concern.

"Well, sure, the travel season is over and fall is here, so gas prices are down. But the way things are going with the economy, nobody is going to be able to afford to fill up," said Carl Schultz of Sacramento, pumping gas at the 76 station at 15th and X streets.

Sacramentan Mary Quintero also saw a mixed blessing in lower gas prices.

"This summer, I couldn't afford to fill up," she said. "Now that gas is cheaper, so many other things have gone up that it's no better for us."

Other motorists characterized lower gas prices as a temporary reprieve.

"I've learned my lesson. The price always goes up over the long term, not the other way around," said Elk Grove resident Lawrence Herman, filling his Toyota Camry at the Chevron station at 19th Street and Broadway. "It always feels good when the summer price starts going down, but wait until next summer. It will be the same old story."

Jan Kennedy, filling up a Toyota Prius at the 76 station, said she's glad she bought the fuel-efficient gas-electric car two years ago. Her old set of wheels: a Ford Explorer sport-utility vehicle.

"Nope, I'll never go back (to an SUV)," she said. "I have friends who say the same thing. We watched our energy bills go up and up and up, and we finally said we've had it.

"I'm sticking with what I've got, because gas is too expensive … and too unpredictable."


Call The Bee's Mark Glover, (916) 321-1184.


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