Say goodbye, finally, to hopes of extending that $10,000 tax credit for buyers of new unoccupied homes in California.

It's all but dead for this year, says one lobbyist who patrols the state Legislature on behalf of home builders.

"We were disappointed neither of those bills panned out this year," said Allison Barnett of the California Building Industry Association, a trade group for the residential construction industry. An Assembly bill extending the tax credit to 4,300 more buyers failed to pass in the Senate. A similar Senate bill failed in the Assembly as lawmakers turned their focus to water bills.

"We're looking for options next year," Barnett said this week. One idea is to establish a tax credit that a buyer could collect only when a building permit is issued for his or her new house. Another is to seek an extension for a few more months. Said Barnett, "We're still looking at details."

Bottom line, buyers of new houses now approaching escrow or signing sales contracts are out of luck in the near term for a state credit. But check out the federal government's $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit, which has been extended to April 30.

More than 10,600 new-home buyers claimed the $10,000 state tax credit earlier this year.

First-timers lift market

Look who is propping up almost half the U.S. residential real estate market. It's that crowd of singles and couples buying their first houses – roughly 47 percent of home sales the past year. The number comes from the National Association of Realtors, which calls it a record high since it started tracking the stats in 1981.

Chalk it up to $8,000 tax credits, growing affordability from falling prices and demand that became pent up when prices skyrocketed this decade, says the trade group for real estate agents.

The NAR said 96 percent of these buyers used a safe fixed-rate mortgage. Six in 10 first-timers used savings to make a down payment and 22 percent got help from relatives, mostly parents. The rest tapped a 401(k) fund or sold stocks and bonds for a payment.

The findings come from an eight-page questionnaire mailed to 120,000 buyers who bought between July 2008 and June 2009. About 9,100 buyers filled it out.

A new surge of refinances

Refinancing activity is picking up again, insiders say, as mortgage rates have held steady below 5 percent for several weeks now.

"For the last week or so we've tested our year lows," said Brent Wilson, senior loan consultant at Sacramento's Comstock Mortgage. He said Tuesday's rates this week were among the year's lowest, alongside other lows on Oct. 2, May 21 and Jan. 8.

The 30-year fixed-rate loan averaged 4.83 percent this week before points, federal mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Last week's rate averaged 4.91 percent. Rates have stayed below 5 percent for six of the past seven weeks.

Nationally, the Mortgage Bankers Association noted that the refinance share of mortgage applications is the highest since May. About 73 percent of last week's applications were for refinancing.

Wilson said that percentage is partly seasonal; fewer people buy this time of year.

Housing: Back to the future

If you're among those who think we've seen enough new beige-colored houses for a while, here's welcome news.

It will take until 2016 for area builders to get back to production levels of 1999.

That's a prediction from Folsom building industry consultant Greg Paquin. He sees a 2016 with 10,921 sales in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties. That would compare with 10,656 in 1999.

This year's expected sales totals in the region: 3,048.

Paquin still calls current events in the capital region "an economic recession and a housing depression."

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Call The Bee's Jim Wasserman, (916) 321-1102. Read his blog on real estate, Home Front, at www.sacbee.com/blogs