FIELD POLL | The economy

David Vargo bought three homes in the Sacramento region within the last 11 years.

He figures the value of his three-bedroom Natomas ranch house has plummeted more than 56 percent from its peak. Though the 64-year-old Vargo owns two of his houses outright, the paper losses were deep enough that he left retirement to work for the U.S. Census Bureau last year.

One in two California voters, including Vargo, say their financial well-being is worse off than a year ago, according to a new Field Poll released Tuesday. It marks the fourth straight year in which at least half of Californians reported a decline in their personal situation, the first time that has happened since Field began asking the question 50 years ago.

"Pretty gloomy stuff," said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. "The length of these negative reports is now becoming historic."

Field also found that 91 percent of voters say that California's economy is in bad shape. Forty-two percent believe that things will stay the same over the next year, while 30 percent say it will worsen and 26 percent think it will improve.

Vargo and his wife moved in 2005 to a smaller Vineyard house but held onto their home in Natomas. He acknowledges that people who have lost their jobs or whose mortgages exceed their home values face more difficult struggles.

Still, he says he has refrained from buying new furniture or home improvements. He estimates the value of his 2,400-square-foot Natomas home dropped from $600,000 to $260,000 over the last several years.

"It certainly puts a big damper on our spending because our net worth keeps getting reduced, and most of our money is in real estate," Vargo said.

Vargo, a former disaster relief administrator, isn't optimistic.

"I'm 64, and this is different," he said. "It's not the same kind of recession as any other."

DiCamillo said the poll doesn't bode well for the state budget, which relies on revenue growth to stay in balance.

State revenue has already fallen short of expectations in June, July and August, according to the Department of Finance.

"I think the state budget was predicated on an assumption that times would get better," DiCamillo said. "That we'd pull out of the slump and that would give tax revenues a boost. Unfortunately, from the evidence we're seeing in this poll and indicators like the stock market, that may not be happening."

Californians may have a gloomy outlook, but that doesn't necessarily mean the economy will remain in a funk, said Stephen Levy, director and senior economist for the Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.

Levy said such consumer confidence polls "change on a dime. People are being bombarded with all sorts of blame and hate, and it's hard to distinguish the gridlock in Sacramento and Washington from the feeling that things won't get better."

Levy said that most of California's economy has stagnated, and growth has been concentrated in areas like the technology sector in the Bay Area. He said wage growth has slowed, so many Californians may be looking at rising prices without increases in pay.

"They have every right to feel discouraged," Levy said.

That's the feeling of Allen Clark, 73, a tax preparer in Tehachapi.

"I see the prices at the market going up, up, up," Clark said, "but I don't see any more money coming in."

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