California missed the revenue mark again in September by collecting $301.6 million less than state leaders expected when they approved this year's budget, according to Controller John Chiang.
For the first three months of the fiscal year, from July to September, California has fallen $705.5 million, or 3.6 percent, behind what state leaders expected by this point.
The gap is roughly equivalent to the July through September share of the $4 billion revenue spike that Gov. Jerry Brown and Democratic lawmakers used to close the budget in June.
That optimistic projection has drawn skepticism ever since the budget was signed. Brown has defended the assumption by pointing to as much as $2.5 billion in "trigger" cuts to schools and social services that would occur if that money never materializes.
"September's revenues alone do not guarantee that triggers will be pulled," Chiang said in a statement. "But as the largest revenue month before December, these numbers do not paint a hopeful picture."
School leaders have grown particularly concerned they will face mid-year budget cuts as revenues lag projections.
But officials at the Department of Finance and Legislative Analyst's Office downplay the monthly revenue totals. They say it remains possible that the bulk of the $4 billion bump will come next spring. They also say that projections have become less reliable on a monthly basis because of recent tax changes.
Forecasters will determine by December whether the state is on a path to receive that money. Jason Sisney, a deputy analyst with the LAO, said he saw positive signs despite the growing revenue shortfall. He said income tax revenues and sales taxes have held firm.
But he also noted that economic news generally has been negative since summer. If economic indicators remain sluggish, it will be difficult for forecasters to assume the state will get that $4 billion spike.
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