The snow enthusiasts have arrived, but the snow is a no-show.
That's the good and the bad news for Lake Tahoe area resorts this holiday season as skiers and snowboarders, who booked their vacations ahead of time, are heading up the mountains only to find a little more than a few inches of snow.
December just might come and go without significant snowfall, and even the much-improved snow-making capacity can't overcome what may become a down year for resorts if the skies don't open up soon.
The forecast suggests a modest chance for a weak storm starting today, but meteorologists are not too optimistic. Unlike last winter, when snow was plentiful, this year's long-term forecast doesn't look good.
As of now, average snow depth in the Sierra Nevada currently stands at 1.4 inches, more than 95 percent below the average snow depth at this time last year.
"The rest of the year is looking not too exciting," said George Cline, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. "It certainly isn't a great beginning."
In Sacramento, the current rainfall total for the month is currently 0.07 inches. If the month ends without more rain, it will be one of the four driest on record and the driest since 1999, when Sacramento's rainfall total reached just 0.03 inches for the month.
Bob Roberts of the California Ski Industry Association said this isn't the first time the industry's fickle partner has let it down.
"We have been though this before," Roberts said.
California resorts average 7.5 million skier visits annually, Roberts said. That dropped to just more than 5 million visitors during the drought years of 1995-96 and 1996-97, he said.
But as industry consultant Ralf Garrison points out, the Tahoe region is much more equipped to weather this lack of storms. It relies on destination guests, banked season pass revenue and increased snow-making capabilities.
November bookings among resorts in the western United States were up 4.5 percent compared with last November, according to Garrison's study. Additionally, through Nov. 30, December bookings were up 11.3 percent among the 265 properties participating in the survey.
Garrison said the holiday skier is less likely to be discouraged by the less-than-ideal coverage and lack of powder. January guests are, however, he said.
The money in the bank from season-pass holders could help soften the blow, but it doesn't account for the lost concession and gift shop revenue.
Amelia Richmond, a spokeswoman for Squaw Valley USA, struck an upbeat tone, even though just a fraction of the mountain is open. As of late last week, four of Squaw's 170 runs were open. Six of partner resort Alpine Meadows' 100 runs were open. (One lift ticket now pays for access to both.)
Both resorts have taken advantage of good snow-making conditions, but it's not enough to replace a few feet of natural snow.
"We can't blow snow over the entire mountain," Richmond said.
Richmond said the resort has chosen to focus its efforts on a handful of strategic runs to ensure opportunities for beginners, intermediate and advanced skiers and boarders.
Heavenly Ski Resort's extensive snow-making operation has allowed it to open 21 of 97 runs.
South Lake Tahoe resident Mike Alexander said the man-made snow on the hill with no snow in town is a little surreal but he is making do with manufactured snow, primarily at Heavenly.
"It's a little icy, but for a winter without any storms, man-made snow is as good as it gets," Alexander said in an email. "The skiing is OK, but we are spoiled here in town and get used to fresh snow."
Johnny Powell, a meteorologist with the Weather Service, remains optimistic: "No need to panic yet. It's still early."
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