Surprise, California. Gov. Jerry Brown rolled out his budget five days early.

After someone in the Brown administration mistakenly posted his budget proposal online Thursday, the governor decided to unveil his spending plan ahead of schedule.

Brown has built his $92.6 billion general fund budget on the hope that voters will approve a nearly $7 billion annual tax hike on sales and wealthy earners. The contingency adds another complicated layer to the state's already tangled budget web.

After failing to strike a deal last year to place taxes on the ballot, Brown intends to go to voters himself by gathering signatures for his measure.

We answer some budget questions below.

>Who loses in his proposal?

His budget hits programs for the poor hardest. It would end welfare payments for parents who fail to meet federal work requirements after 24 months, cutting that time limit in half. It also eliminates 71,000 child care slots for low-income working parents, who already face long wait lists.

College students lose in the short run, too. California State University and the University of California each lost 18 percent in their state funding in 2011-12, and both systems may have been hoping for relief this time around.

Brown gave a small bump to UC and no increase to CSU – while putting both on the chopping block again if voters reject his tax hike. He also lowered Cal Grant aid for low-income students at private schools and raised grade point average standards for all Cal Grant recipients.

>Did anyone win?

It's hard to say schools "won" since their fate depends on whether voters approve higher taxes. But if voters sign off, schools could begin paying off debt and eventually reverse recession-era cuts like shortening the school year and increasing class sizes.

If the taxes fail, they would receive roughly the same amount of money they got this year under the state's constitutional guarantee, Proposition 98. But school advocates say that equals a cut because the state would not provide a $2.2 billion delayed payment as it did this year.

Some question whether the governor could actually lower school funding to the level proposed because he relies on a questionable maneuver.

>A budget gimmick?

Education groups think so. Under existing law, without new taxes, schools are due to receive about $50.2 billion under the governor's math because revenues are growing as the economy recovers. Whenever revenues grow, schools get a sizable share of new money under the state constitution.

If the taxes fail, Brown would count $2.6 billion in school bond debt payments toward what the state owes education. The accounting change would crowd out classroom dollars in a way the state hasn't done before.

School advocates said this maneuver would be legally suspect and the state would face a serious threat of litigation from the powerful education lobby.

But if Democratic lawmakers don't approve this kind of maneuver, they may have to find cuts elsewhere or get Republican support to suspend the state's constitutional guarantee for education.

>What is the relevance of this budget plan?

It's still early.

The governor's proposal lays the groundwork for the months-long budget process, but what lawmakers and Brown enact is likely to be a very different product from what we saw this week. The state's volatile income stream is hard to predict, so the situation in May could be better – or worse – than what we see today.

Brown wants swift approval of his cuts. But Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, says his house won't act until at least May. Democrats oppose the health and welfare cuts, and they want to see if the state's economic condition improves even further this spring.

>Revenues are growing. Why does Brown want more taxes?

The governor says the state still spends more than it takes in, carries various forms of debt and owes schools a large share of future tax growth.

State deficits would shrink over time even without higher taxes, but the governor says this relies on smaller safety net programs, borrowing and a hamstrung education system. He wants to reverse this situation.

Republicans suggest the state should stay the course and increase spending only if the state has enough money. They have not yet said where they would cut in the next fiscal year.

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Call Kevin Yamamura, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5548.

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