Gov. Jerry Brown's budget would help California bring its spending in line with revenues over time, but it relies on volatile income and may contain welfare cuts that are "too severe," the state's top fiscal analyst said Wednesday in his first review.
The Democratic governor released a $92.6 billion general fund budget last week that includes health and welfare cuts while relying on voters to pass a $6.9 billion increase of income taxes on the wealthy and sales taxes. He also outlined an alternative path if the taxes fail that would reduce school funding $4.8 billion below what he wants to provide education.
Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor's report suggests that Brown's $1 billion cut in the welfare-to-work program may have some merit in emphasizing work. The proposal drops aid to parents who fail to find jobs after 24 months, rather than the current 48 months.
But the analyst also noted, "The Legislature may wish to consider whether the proposed reductions to families most in need of support to achieve self-sufficiency are too severe, as well as the Governor's proposal to restrict eligibility criteria and time lines for subsidized child care."
The governor's plan would restrict access to those making the equivalent of about $12,970 for a family of three down to $11,400.
The analyst also warned that because of the way school districts build their budgets, the governor and lawmakers need to be mindful that they may install program cuts this summer before voters have a chance to decide on taxes.
"This means schools in '12-'13 likely will implement most, if not all, of the reductions that many hope to avoid," he wrote. "Given this possibility, the Legislature needs to be very deliberate in structuring a workable trigger package."
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