CHARLESTON, S.C. – South Carolina Republican voters are poised to define the 2012 GOP presidential race today, but the outcome of the South's first primary is hard to predict.
Strong signs suggest that Newt Gingrich is about to get a boost, analysts said Friday, as he rides a wave of momentum cresting off two strong debate performances this week.
"This Gingrich thing – you can feel it," said Dave Woodard, a professor of political science at Clemson University and a Republican consultant.
Still, the race remains close. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who saw his double-digit lead in polls here a week ago erode into a virtual tie with Gingrich, remains formidable and well-financed, with an extensive campaign organization.
In addition, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum closed the week with a strong debate performance Thursday. That followed news that he had won the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, rather than finishing eight votes behind Romney, as originally reported.
Santorum also won an endorsement last weekend from a group of national evangelical leaders, which could give him a boost with social conservative voters, who made up 60 percent of this state's GOP electorate in 2008.
Last, there's Texas Rep. Ron Paul, whose impassioned libertarian following assures that he'll take a slice of the South Carolina vote; polls put him in the 10 percent to 15 percent range.
Since 1980, no Republican has won his party's nomination without winning South Carolina's primary. A Gingrich win would anoint him as the Republicans' most prominent conservative contender.
That would be a significant setback to Romney and would heighten questions about his viability as the race moves to Florida, which holds its primary Jan. 31. Alternatively, a Romney win here could all but guarantee him the nomination, something even Gingrich effectively conceded this week.
"People may be voting not so much for Gingrich, but just to keep the primaries going," said Kendra Stewart, an associate professor of political science at the College of Charleston.
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