A joint Senate/Assembly conference committee will hold its third (ho-hum) informational hearing today on the 12-point pension reform plan that Gov. Jerry Brown unveiled with such fanfare last October. Don't expect anything to come of it. So far, a lot of talk has emerged but no pension bill. Efforts to substantially reduce state pension obligations are a sham in this Legislature, and most people who work in the Capitol know that.

A conference committee was formed to produce a reform package, but after three months, no author has emerged willing to champion the governor's proposal and no language has been drafted that would give substance to the modest plan Brown outlined.

The committee's stated purpose today is "exploring hybrid plan design options." One of the more controversial provisions of the governor's plan, the hybrid option, would apply only to public employees hired in the future. It would shift them to a scaled-back guaranteed pension coupled with a 401(k)-type retirement benefit and Social Security. Public employee unions don't like the hybrid plan, so the Legislature isn't likely to approve it, but lawmakers will pretend to give it serious consideration.

So here's what's really happening. The Legislature is stalling, waiting to see if either of the two pension reform initiatives that have been proposed by private interests can gather the necessary signatures to qualify for the November ballot. If and when those measures qualify – and it's doubtful they will because no deep-pocket supporter has yet emerged willing to finance the effort – only then will lawmakers likely approve some sort of weak pension reform measure and stick it on the ballot to try to confuse voters and defeat serious reform.

The betting now is that nothing will happen – that neither a private pension reform initiative will make it to the ballot nor will the Legislature do anything substantive.

And that's because public employee unions want to maintain the status quo on pensions. Majority Democrats who depend on unions to fund their election campaigns are loath to cross union bosses. The governor wants pension reform, but he needs union cash to finance his planned tax increase ballot measure, so he can push pension reform only so far, which means, not at all, really.

But here's the risk on the other side. Current high pension payouts are unsustainable. The California Public Employees' Retirement System this week reported a dismal 1.1 percent earnings rate for 2011, far below the 7.75 percent assumed rate of return. As pension costs increase, slowly crowding out spending on education, welfare and public safety, the club of state retirees getting pension payouts of $100,000 per year or higher will increase, along with public disgust.

What do disgusted voters do? They reject the governor's tax increase, asking why they should sacrifice if the governor's union friends won't sacrifice as well. When that happens, the state will have to cut budgets further, resulting in a further loss of public sector jobs union leaders say they are trying to protect.

At that point, someone might get serious about pension reform – but it will be too late.

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