The 84th Academy Awards will bring true intrigue.

Unlike last year, when the Oscars that went to Colin Firth ("The King's Speech"), Natalie Portman ("Black Swan") and Melissa Leo and Christian Bale (both from "The Fighter") seemed predetermined, the Feb. 26 Academy Awards telecast (at 5:30 p.m. on Channel 10; red-carpet coverage starts at 4) will offer genuine question marks in acting categories.

Jean Dujardin, the dashing star of "The Artist," appears a favorite for the lead-actor Oscar. Yet George Clooney, usually dashing but slightly rumpled in the "The Descendants," is a factor as well.

The most heated category is lead actress, where favorite Viola Davis ("The Help") will try to fend off Meryl Streep ("The Iron Lady"), perennial Oscar nominee but infrequent Oscar winner.

Here are predictions in the most prominent Oscar categories. These predictions are not of who should win, but who will win, based on indicators from earlier in the awards season, like the Golden Globes and Hollywood guild awards, and on Internet chatter and, in one case, a hunch.

But each category also comes with a "should win," with my choice, and most with an "unless" caveat, because it's always fun to explore possibilities. (A full ballot, with my picks in every category, appears on Page 14).

SUPPORTING ACTOR

- Kenneth Branagh, "My Week With Marilyn"

- Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"

- Nick Nolte, "Warrior"

- Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

- Max von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"

Winner: Plummer. As a widower coming out as a gay man late in life, Plummer, 82, gives a frisky yet wise performance. He shows his character's exquisite enjoyment of his new freedom, but also remnants of the pain attached to being closeted for so long. Long overdue for an Oscar, Plummer has swept the important big pre-Oscar awards.

Unless … Von Sydow, Plummer's fellow octogenarian and longtime rival for roles as sketchy scientists and elegant grandpas, wins instead.

Von Sydow silently (his character doesn't speak) expresses affection and a touch of alarm as his mystery character joins a boy on an important quest in "Extremely Loud."

A von Sydow win would derive partly from Oscar voters' gratitude. His presence in "Extremely Loud" momentarily steadies the overwrought film.

Should win: Plummer

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

- Bérénice Bejo, "The Artist"

- Jessica Chastain, "The Help"

- Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"

- Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"

- Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

Winner: Spencer. A veteran of small film roles and TV guest spots, Spencer, 39, has seized her big break. With her highly memorable performance as a 1960s Mississippi maid with a strong sense of justice and a disgusting sense of comeuppance, she has won all the big pre-Oscar awards.

Unless … Spencer and Chastain (see story, below), a nice on-screen duo as a misfit housewife and her maid/reluctant life coach, split the vote for "The Help." That would make way for a win by McCarthy, like Spencer a revelation in a movie that was highly popular with the public.

Should win: McCarthy

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

- "The Artist" (Michel Hazanavicius)

- "Bridesmaids" (Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig)

- "Margin Call" (J.C. Chandor)

- "Midnight in Paris" (Woody Allen)

- "A Separation" (Asghar Farhadi)

Winner: Allen, for "Midnight in Paris." Allen's 1920s Paris bohemian fantasy captivated audiences and became his biggest box-office hit in decades. Allen's dialogue and an overall tone of wonderment suit the native innocence of Owen Wilson, the writer-director's best-ever on-screen alter ego. Plus, Allen is 76, placing him in Clint Eastwood "every picture counts" territory.

Unless … "The Artist" is honored as part of a sweep, with Oscar voters choosing no dialogue over Allen's wall-to-wall dialogue.

Should win: "Bridesmaids"

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

- "The Descendants" (Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash)

- "Hugo" (John Logan)

- "The Ides of March" (George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon)

- "Moneyball" (Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin; Stan Chervin)

- "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" (Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan)

Winner: "Moneyball." Sorkin won in this category last year for the potentially dry, fully engaging "The Social Network." With co-writers Zaillian and Chervin, he pulls off a similar feat in "Moneyball," making stats exciting and crafting a hero out of a livelihood-threatening baseball boss.

Unless … "The Descendants" wins. "Moneyball" is admired, but "The Descendants" is beloved. Voters also might honor "Hugo," which didn't best all other films with a pack-leading 11 nominations for nothing.

In other words, this category is a crapshoot, and "Moneyball" a solid enough choice.

Should win: "Moneyball"

DIRECTOR

- Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

- Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"

- Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"

- Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"

- Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"

Winner: Hazanavicius. He already won the Golden Globe and a far more telling indicator, the Directors Guild of America award.

As a directorial effort, "The Artist" strikes a perfect balance. Arty and inventive enough to be a respectable choice, it is a thousand times more accessible than "The Tree of Life," the year's true artistic achievement. There aren't any silent dinosaurs in "The Artist."

Unless … Scorsese, 69, sneaks in for "Hugo," a movie about loving movies. "Hugo" is a lovely entry for this year, but imagine Scorsese winning for "Hugo" in the context of his career: Passed over for "Raging Bull" and "Goodfellas," Scorsese wins his two career directing Academy Awards for "The Departed" and a 3-D movie.

Should win: Malick

ACTOR

- Demián Bichir, "A Better Life"

- George Clooney, "The Descendants"

- Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"

- Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

- Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"

Winner: Dujardin. The delightful Frenchman brings old-school charm and modern knowingness to his silent-era matinee idol. Dujardin, 39, won the Screen Actors Guild award, British Academy of Film and Television Award and Golden Globe (comedy/musical).

He's as likable on awards podiums as he is in the film. But he might be overdoing it. His dancing last weekend on "Saturday Night Live" seemed like stumping.

Unless … Globe (drama) winner Clooney, 50, is honored for his subtle work as a guy who learns his wife cheated on him before a boating accident rendered her comatose. Clooney's performance strikes an emotional chord with viewers that Dujardin's does not. And more people have seen "Descendants," now at $70 million at the domestic box office, than "The Artist," which has generated $24 million. Some of those people are Academy voters.

Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio, for "J. Edgar," but he wasn't nominated.

ACTRESS

- Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"

- Viola Davis, "The Help"

- Rooney Mara, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"

- Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"

- Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"

Winner: Meryl Streep. But it's a squeaker.

A terrific year for female performances comes down, happily, to two extraordinary talents: Streep, Golden Globe and BAFTA winner for her uncanny, humanizing portrayal of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and Viola Davis, SAG award winner for her deep character work as a '60s Mississippi maid.

A win for either actress would carry significance beyond the award. Davis, 46, previously nominated in the supporting field for "Doubt," is just the second African American woman (after Whoopi Goldberg) to receive two career nominations, and would be just the second African American (after Halle Berry) to be named best actress.

Streep would break a long losing streak. Nominated a record 17 times, she has won twice, in 1980, for her supporting role in "Kramer vs. Kramer" and 1983, as lead in "Sophie's Choice."

Both consistently elevate their material (see Davis in Showtime's "The United States of Tara" or in "Extremely Loud," or Streep in, well, "The Iron Lady").

Davis imbues her "Help" character with compassion, pain and fortitude. But she doesn't carry her film the way Streep carries hers (Emma Stone seems like the lead of "The Help").

Mostly, though, it just feels like it's Streep's time (again), even if Davis is the favorite.

There it is: a hunch.

Unless … Davis wins

Should win: Streep

PICTURE

- "The Artist"

- "The Descendants"

- "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"

- "The Help"

- "Hugo"

- "Midnight in Paris"

- "Moneyball"

- "The Tree of Life"

- "War Horse"

Winner: "The Artist." In a play-it-safe field (Was the Academy afraid of "Drive" because of a little blood? Or "Bridesmaids" because of a few stomach issues?), "The Artist" emerges as a lovely, inarguably well-executed piece of entertainment.

Unless … There is no unless.

Should win: "The Artist"

© Copyright The Sacramento Bee. All rights reserved.

Call The Bee's Carla Meyer, (916) 321-1118.

• Read more articles by Carla Meyer