In our first outing of the season, Sacramento-area teams snag the top seed in the top three divisions. Franklin has the top spot in Division I, Folsom in D-II and Placer in D-III. Burbank, the No. 2 seed in Division I, and Placer are both right on the enrollment edge for their divisions and could move down to lower divisions if the mix of qualifying teams were to change.
One big surprise: Traditional powers Grant and Nevada Union aren't even close to making the cut.
The Golden Empire League, where 1-5 Marysville is the No. 2 team in the league standings, is causing some typical Week 6 glitches. The next team in, Modesto Christian, has a similar enrollment level, so a swap of those teams won't dramatically affect the brackets.
League play has begun for every team, but most squads have four games left to play. Seeding and bracketing will change significantly over the next few weeks. This projection is meant to give a broad sense of how the divisions are shaping up and which teams have the inside track for home field advantage. A more thorough discussion of how our projection is done appears below the chart.
LP-League position OW-Opponent's wins AL-At large
| Division I | ||||||
| Seed | School | W | L | LP | OW | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franklin | 6 | 0 | 1 | 22 | Delta Valley |
| 2 | Burbank | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | Metropolitan |
| 3 | Stagg | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | Tri-City |
| 4 | Oak Ridge | 5 | 1 | AL | 23 | Delta River |
| 5 | Pitman | 5 | 1 | AL | 14 | Central California |
| 6 | Tokay | 5 | 1 | AL | 11 | Tri-City |
| 7 | Jesuit | 4 | 2 | AL | 24 | Delta River |
| 8 | Merced | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 | Central California |
| 9 | Napa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 | Monticello Empire |
| 10 | Enochs | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 | Modesto Metro |
| 11 | Bethel | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | Solano County |
| 12 | Pleasant Grove | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | Delta River |
| 13 | Davis | 4 | 2 | AL | 15 | Delta Valley |
| 14 | Monterey Trail | 4 | 2 | AL | 16 | Delta Valley |
| 15 | Granite Bay | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 | Sierra Foothill |
| 16 | Lincoln-Stockton | 3 | 3 | 1 | 19 | San Joaquin AA |
| Division II | ||||||
| Seed | School | W | L | LP | OW | League |
| 1 | Folsom | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | Delta River |
| 2 | Downey | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | Modesto Metro |
| 3 | Elk Grove | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | Delta Valley |
| 4 | Yuba City | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | Tri-County |
| 5 | Whitney | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | Capital Athletic |
| 6 | Antelope | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | Capital Athletic |
| 7 | Rio Linda | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | Capital Valley |
| 8 | Atwater | 5 | 1 | AL | 15 | Central California |
| 9 | McNair | 5 | 1 | AL | 12 | Tri-City |
| 10 | Ponderosa | 5 | 1 | AL | 11 | Delta River |
| 11 | Buhach Colony | 4 | 2 | 1 | 24 | Central California |
| 12 | St. Marys | 4 | 2 | 1 | 23 | Tri-City |
| 13 | Del Campo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | Capital Valley |
| 14 | Tracy | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | San Joaquin AA |
| 15 | Vacaville | 3 | 3 | 1 | 23 | Monticello Empire |
| 16 | Del Oro | 2 | 4 | 2 | 25 | Sierra Foothill |
| Division III | ||||||
| Seed | School | W | L | LP | OW | League |
| 1 | Placer | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 | Pioneer Valley |
| 2 | Oakdale | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | Valley Oak |
| 3 | Benicia | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | Solano County |
| 4 | Cosumnes Oaks | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | Sierra Valley |
| 5 | Vista del Lago | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | Sierra Valley |
| 6 | Sierra | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | Valley Oak |
| 7 | Patterson | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | Western |
| 8 | American Canyon | 5 | 1 | AL | 10 | Solano County |
| 9 | Pacheco | 4 | 3 | AL | 23 | Western |
| 10 | Inderkum | 4 | 2 | AL | 21 | Tri-County |
| 11 | River Valley | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | Tri-County |
| 12 | Christian Brothers | 4 | 2 | AL | 17 | Capital Valley |
| 13 | Sacramento | 4 | 2 | AL | 16 | Metropolitan |
| 14 | El Camino | 4 | 2 | AL | 16 | Capital Athletic |
| 15 | Central Valley | 4 | 2 | AL | 12 | Western |
| 16 | Rosemont | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | Metropolitan |
| Division IV | ||||||
| Seed | School | W | L | LP | OW | League |
| 1 | Ripon | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | Trans Valley |
| 2 | Argonaut | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | Mother Lode |
| 3 | Hilmar | 6 | 1 | AL | 21 | Trans Valley |
| 4 | Summerville | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | Mother Lode |
| 5 | Bear River | 6 | 0 | AL | 13 | Pioneer Valley |
| 6 | Central Catholic | 5 | 2 | 1 | 31 | Western |
| 7 | Capital Christian | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | Golden Empire |
| 8 | Escalon | 5 | 2 | 2 | 31 | Trans Valley |
| 9 | Los Banos | 5 | 1 | AL | 19 | Western |
| 10 | Center | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | Pioneer Valley |
| 11 | Orestimba | 5 | 2 | AL | 17 | Trans Valley |
| 12 | Calaveras | 5 | 1 | AL | 15 | Mother Lode |
| 13 | Dixon | 5 | 1 | AL | 15 | Golden Empire |
| 14 | Amador | 5 | 1 | AL | 15 | Mother Lode |
| 15 | Liberty Ranch | 4 | 3 | AL | 16 | Sierra Valley |
| 16 | Marysville | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 | Golden Empire |
| Division V | ||||||
| Seed | School | W | L | LP | OW | League |
| 1 | Le Grand | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | Southern |
| 2 | Highlands | 4 | 3 | 1 | 23 | Sierra Delta |
| 3 | Waterford | 4 | 2 | AL | 15 | Southern |
| 4 | Bradshaw Christian | 3 | 4 | AL | 28 | Sierra Delta |
| 5 | San Juan | 3 | 3 | AL | 22 | Sierra Delta |
| 6 | Golden Sierra | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | Sierra Delta |
| Division VI | ||||||
| Seed | School | W | L | LP | OW | League |
| 1 | Woodland Christian | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | Sacramento Metro |
| 2 | Foresthill | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | Sacramento Metro |
| 3 | Ripon Christian | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | Southern |
| 4 | Brookside Christian | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | Central California AA |
| 5 | Elliot Christian | 4 | 2 | AL | 15 | Central California AA |
| 6 | Big Valley Christian | 2 | 4 | 2 | 19 | Central California AA |
On the divisional edge: The smallest enrollment school in D-I this week is Burbank. In D-II, the largest school is Downey and the smallest is Yuba City. Central Valley is the largest school in D-III; Placer is the smallest. In D-IV, Center is the largest. These are the schools most likely to switch divisions if the mix of qualifying teams changes.
Outside looking in: No three-win teams received at-large bids in the top four divisions, but all of the four-win teams received a spot. Modesto Christian would have been the first three-win team in. Also on the edge, albeit for an unusual reason, is Rocklin. The Thunder are tied with Del Oro for second place in league, and both teams have the same CalPreps rating this week. Del Oro is on the chart this week because of an invented tiebreaker, but Rocklin would be an equally valid sixteenth seed in D-II.
How our projection is done: We have attempted to apply the section's playoff rules for this year as much as possible, with some slight adjustments to compensate for the four weeks yet to be played. The section's playoff plan for 2012 is attached to this story, along with some sample brackets.
We change the rules in two ways to make our projection. First, we ignore the requirement that a team have two league wins, since many teams have just started league play. Second, we add CalPreps rankings as a second tiebreaker for determining each league's two automatic qualifiers. The official tiebreaker is head-to-head competition, but in many cases the teams have yet to play each other. Head-to-head results are used whenever the teams have played.
These charts show preliminary seeding. The section has broad authority to adjust the seeds to compose the final brackets. For example, seeding is generally be adjusted to prevent teams from the same league from meeting in the first round. Travel distance is another potential reason for a seeding adjustment. For these charts, we haven't tried to make those final tweaks.
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