Changes in the field, including the disappearance of Davis and the return of Christian Brothers, have shuffled the enrollment breakdowns a bit. Whitney is now projecting as a Division III team, dropping down from Division II last week. Similarly, Center has moved down to Division IV.
Grant, which has not made the projection yet this year, is still a likely playoff contender. The Pacers have the highest OW tally in the section, and just need a win over Laguna Creek (2-7) on Friday. Del Oro can also earn a spot if they defeat Rocklin in their final game.
All the teams in this week's field have at least one league win. Teams listed in red must win their final game in order have the two league wins required for playoff eligibility.
Seeding and bracketing can still change significantly in the final week. This projection is meant to give a broad sense of how the divisions are shaping up and which teams have the inside track for home field advantage. A more thorough discussion of how our projection is done appears below the chart.
We will release a final "week 10" playoff forecast on Thursday, so check back tomorrow for a preview of this year's football playoffs. Between the addition of Grant and the exit of some other teams on the bubble, there could be some considerable changes to the division breakdowns.
LP-League position OW-Opponent's wins AL-At large
Teams shown in red have yet to win two games in league play.
| Division I | |||||||
| Seed | School | TW | TL | LP | OW | League | LW |
| 1 | Franklin | 9 | 0 | 1 | 49 | Delta Valley | 4 |
| 2 | Oak Ridge | 8 | 1 | 2 | 50 | Delta River | 3 |
| 3 | Stagg | 8 | 1 | 2 | 33 | Tri-City | 3 |
| 4 | Pitman | 7 | 2 | AL | 37 | Central California | 2 |
| 5 | Granite Bay | 6 | 3 | 1 | 44 | Sierra Foothill | 4 |
| 6 | Lincoln-Stockton | 6 | 3 | 1 | 42 | San Joaquin AA | 4 |
| 7 | Merced | 6 | 3 | 2 | 53 | Central California | 3 |
| 8 | Pleasant Grove | 6 | 3 | AL | 45 | Delta River | 3 |
| 9 | Napa | 6 | 3 | 2 | 42 | Monticello Empire | 3 |
| 10 | Tokay | 6 | 3 | AL | 34 | Tri-City | 1 |
| 11 | Jesuit | 5 | 4 | AL | 49 | Delta River | 1 |
| 12 | Bethel | 5 | 4 | AL | 46 | Solano County | 2 |
| 13 | Enochs | 5 | 4 | 2 | 41 | Modesto Metro | 4 |
| 14 | Nevada Union | 5 | 4 | AL | 40 | Sierra Foothill | 2 |
| 15 | Monterey Trail | 5 | 4 | AL | 37 | Delta Valley | 1 |
| 16 | Vallejo | 3 | 6 | 1 | 45 | Solano County | 3 |
| Division II | |||||||
| Seed | School | TW | TL | LP | OW | League | LW |
| 1 | Burbank | 9 | 0 | 1 | 36 | Metropolitan | 6 |
| 2 | Folsom | 9 | 0 | 1 | 35 | Delta River | 4 |
| 3 | Downey | 8 | 1 | 1 | 29 | Modesto Metro | 5 |
| 4 | Elk Grove | 8 | 1 | 2 | 46 | Delta Valley | 3 |
| 5 | Rio Linda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 36 | Capital Valley | 4 |
| 6 | Antelope | 8 | 1 | 2 | 35 | Capital Athletic | 4 |
| 7 | Buhach Colony | 7 | 2 | 1 | 47 | Central California | 4 |
| 8 | St. Marys | 7 | 2 | 1 | 45 | Tri-City | 4 |
| 9 | Del Campo | 7 | 2 | 1 | 36 | Capital Valley | 4 |
| 10 | McNair | 7 | 2 | AL | 33 | Tri-City | 3 |
| 11 | Vacaville | 6 | 3 | 1 | 44 | Monticello Empire | 4 |
| 12 | Atwater | 6 | 3 | AL | 41 | Central California | 2 |
| 13 | Tracy | 6 | 3 | 2 | 39 | San Joaquin AA | 3 |
| 14 | Rocklin | 5 | 4 | 2 | 50 | Sierra Foothill | 3 |
| 15 | Ponderosa | 5 | 4 | AL | 40 | Delta River | 1 |
| 16 | Wood | 5 | 4 | AL | 38 | Monticello Empire | 3 |
| Division III | |||||||
| Seed | School | TW | TL | LP | OW | League | LW |
| 1 | Placer | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40 | Pioneer Valley | 4 |
| 2 | Oakdale | 8 | 1 | 1 | 40 | Valley Oak | 6 |
| 3 | Yuba City | 8 | 1 | 1 | 40 | Tri-County | 4 |
| 4 | Vista del Lago | 8 | 1 | 1 | 36 | Sierra Valley | 5 |
| 5 | Whitney | 8 | 1 | 1 | 33 | Capital Athletic | 4 |
| 6 | Sierra | 8 | 1 | 2 | 32 | Valley Oak | 5 |
| 7 | American Canyon | 8 | 1 | 2 | 28 | Solano County | 3 |
| 8 | Inderkum | 7 | 2 | 2 | 43 | Tri-County | 3 |
| 9 | Patterson | 7 | 2 | AL | 36 | Western | 4 |
| 10 | Cosumnes Oaks | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35 | Sierra Valley | 4 |
| 11 | Sacramento | 7 | 2 | 2 | 33 | Metropolitan | 5 |
| 12 | Benicia | 7 | 2 | AL | 32 | Solano County | 3 |
| 13 | El Camino | 6 | 3 | AL | 38 | Capital Athletic | 2 |
| 14 | Manteca | 5 | 4 | AL | 46 | Valley Oak | 4 |
| 15 | Pacheco | 5 | 4 | AL | 45 | Western | 3 |
| 16 | Christian Brothers | 5 | 4 | AL | 42 | Capital Valley | 2 |
| Division IV | |||||||
| Seed | School | TW | TL | LP | OW | League | LW |
| 1 | Ripon | 10 | 0 | 1 | 41 | Trans Valley | 6 |
| 2 | Argonaut | 9 | 0 | 1 | 39 | Mother Lode | 4 |
| 3 | Capital Christian | 8 | 1 | 1 | 34 | Golden Empire | 4 |
| 4 | Los Banos | 8 | 1 | 2 | 43 | Western | 4 |
| 5 | Center | 8 | 1 | 2 | 38 | Pioneer Valley | 4 |
| 6 | Dixon | 8 | 1 | 2 | 26 | Golden Empire | 3 |
| 7 | Central Catholic | 7 | 2 | 1 | 54 | Western | 5 |
| 8 | Escalon | 7 | 2 | 2 | 54 | Trans Valley | 4 |
| 9 | Summerville | 7 | 2 | AL | 44 | Mother Lode | 2 |
| 10 | Bear River | 7 | 2 | AL | 43 | Pioneer Valley | 2 |
| 11 | Calaveras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 41 | Mother Lode | 3 |
| 12 | Amador | 7 | 2 | AL | 34 | Mother Lode | 2 |
| 13 | Hilmar | 6 | 3 | AL | 47 | Trans Valley | 2 |
| 14 | Modesto Christian | 5 | 4 | AL | 53 | Trans Valley | 3 |
| 15 | Hughson | 5 | 4 | AL | 46 | Trans Valley | 2 |
| 16 | Liberty Ranch | 5 | 5 | AL | 41 | Sierra Valley | 3 |
| Division V | |||||||
| Seed | School | TW | TL | LP | OW | League | LW |
| 1 | Le Grand | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | Southern | 6 |
| 2 | Waterford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35 | Southern | 5 |
| 3 | Ripon Christian | 7 | 2 | AL | 38 | Southern | 5 |
| 4 | Golden Sierra | 6 | 3 | 1 | 39 | Sierra Delta | 5 |
| 5 | Highlands | 6 | 4 | 2 | 43 | Sierra Delta | 5 |
| 6 | Bradshaw Christian | 4 | 5 | 3 | 51 | Sierra Delta | 3 |
| Division VI | |||||||
| Seed | School | TW | TL | LP | OW | League | LW |
| 1 | Foresthill | 8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | Sacramento Metro | 7 |
| 2 | Brookside Christian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 36 | Central California AA | 4 |
| 3 | Woodland Christian | 7 | 2 | 2 | 29 | Sacramento Metro | 5 |
| 4 | Elliot Christian | 6 | 3 | AL | 28 | Central California AA | 2 |
| 5 | Vacaville Christian | 5 | 4 | AL | 31 | Sierra Delta | 2 |
| 6 | Big Valley Christian | 4 | 5 | 2 | 43 | Central California AA | 3 |
On the divisional edge: The smallest enrollment school in D-I this week is Bethel. In D-II, the largest school is Burbank and the smallest is Antelope. Whitney is the largest school in D-III; Placer is the smallest. In D-IV, Center is the largest. These are the schools most likely to switch divisions if the mix of qualifying teams changes.
Outside looking in: Monterey Trail is the last team in with 37 OW. The next teams in would be Davis and River Valley, tied 36 OW (Davis holds the tiebreaking advantage).
How our projection is done: We have attempted to apply the section's playoff rules for this year as much as possible, with some slight adjustments to compensate for the four weeks yet to be played. The section's playoff plan for 2012 is attached to this story, along with some sample brackets.
We change the rules in two ways to make our projection. First, we ignore the requirement that a team have two league wins until the final weeks of the season. Second, we add CalPreps rankings as a second tiebreaker for determining each league's two automatic qualifiers. The official tiebreaker is head-to-head competition, but in many cases the teams have yet to play each other. Head-to-head results are used whenever the teams have played.
These charts show preliminary seeding. The section has broad authority to adjust the seeds to compose the final brackets. For example, seeding is generally be adjusted to prevent teams from the same league from meeting in the first round. Travel distance is another potential reason for a seeding adjustment. For these charts, we haven't tried to make those final tweaks.
Corrected Wednesday morning to fix Vista del Lago's win total.
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