Dan Walters

0 comments | Print

Dan Walters: California's uneven recovery

Published: Friday, Dec. 21, 2012 - 12:00 am | Page 3A
Last Modified: Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2013 - 8:16 pm

California's unemployment rate has been declining fractionally as its recession-battered economy slowly improves.

After hitting bottom three years ago, the state has added more than a half-million jobs. Its unemployment rate has dropped from over 12 percent to about 10 percent – still one of the nation's highest, but definitely better.

We're still a long way from recovering the 1.4 million jobs lost when the housing industry meltdown plunged the state into the worst recession since the Great Depression.

That will take at least two more years, assuming that outside events – such as falling off the "fiscal cliff" or the European economic crisis – don't plunge us back into recession.

But California's recovery is also very uneven from geographic and demographic viewpoints. While the economy is hopping in the San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California's coastal communities, it's still struggling in inland and rural California.

The most recent employment data reveal that 34 of our 58 counties have unemployment rates above the state's average, and the gap is rather stark at the extremes.

While wealthy and overwhelmingly white Marin County's unemployment rate is under 6 percent, for instance, the residents of poor and mostly Latino Imperial County are five times as likely to be without jobs.

Economist Bill Watkins, who crunches numbers at California Lutheran University, puts it this way in a recent report on the state's economy: "California's schizophrenic economy is difficult to forecast. There are four centers of mass, and each of them is on a different path."

Watkins notes that while the Bay Area and San Diego are booming with technology, the Los Angeles area is still affected by the decline of its once-vigorous industrial sector, inland California "is suffering from what amounts to a depression" and the "Geriatric Coast" lives on the wealth of its retirees but is short of well-paying jobs other than those in medical care.

"Think of it as a big, wealthy Leisure Village by the Sea," Watkins says of the Geriatric Coast, which includes portions of San Diego and Orange counties, runs from Ventura County to the San Francisco Bay Area, then skips up to the counties north of the Golden Gate. "It will get older and richer, and increasingly unequal as the middle class continues to shrink. Don't expect much in the way of economic growth or job creation here."

If recovery follows the uneven path Watkins sees, it will exacerbate the state's already startling socio-economic fault lines.

The Census Bureau has been experimenting with a new way of measuring poverty. By that standard, California has the nation's highest proportion of poor people – as well as pockets of wealth and conspicuous consumption that are the envy of the world.

© Copyright The Sacramento Bee. All rights reserved.

Read more articles by Dan Walters



About Comments

Reader comments on Sacbee.com are the opinions of the writer, not The Sacramento Bee. If you see an objectionable comment, click the "Report Abuse" link below it. We will delete comments containing inappropriate links, obscenities, hate speech, and personal attacks. Flagrant or repeat violators will be banned. See more about comments here.

What You Should Know About Comments on Sacbee.com

Sacbee.com is happy to provide a forum for reader interaction, discussion, feedback and reaction to our stories. However, we reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments or ban users who can't play nice. (See our full terms of service here.)

Here are some rules of the road:

• Keep your comments civil. Don't insult one another or the subjects of our articles. If you think a comment violates our guidelines click the "Report Abuse" link to notify the moderators. Responding to the comment will only encourage bad behavior.

• Don't use profanities, vulgarities or hate speech. This is a general interest news site. Sometimes, there are children present. Don't say anything in a way you wouldn't want your own child to hear.

• Do not attack other users; focus your comments on issues, not individuals.

• Stay on topic. Only post comments relevant to the article at hand.

• Do not copy and paste outside material into the comment box.

• Don't repeat the same comment over and over. We heard you the first time.

• Do not use the commenting system for advertising. That's spam and it isn't allowed.

• Don't use all capital letters. That's akin to yelling and not appreciated by the audience.

• Don't flag other users' comments just because you don't agree with their point of view. Please only flag comments that violate these guidelines.

You should also know that The Sacramento Bee does not screen comments before they are posted. You are more likely to see inappropriate comments before our staff does, so we ask that you click the "Report Abuse" link to submit those comments for moderator review. You also may notify us via email at feedback@sacbee.com. Note the headline on which the comment is made and tell us the profile name of the user who made the comment. Remember, comment moderation is subjective. You may find some material objectionable that we won't and vice versa.

If you submit a comment, the user name of your account will appear along with it. Users cannot remove their own comments once they have submitted them.

hide comments
Sacramento Bee Job listing powered by Careerbuilder.com
Quick Job Search
Buy
Used Cars
Dealer and private-party ads
Make:

Model:

Price Range:
to
Search within:
miles of ZIP

Advanced Search | 1982 & Older



Find 'n' Save Daily DealGet the Deal!

Local Deals