Average home prices in the Sacramento metro area rose 6.1 percent last year, but they'll decline 5.4 percent by this fall, according to Brookfield, Wis.-based Fiserv Inc., a global technology provider serving the financial services industry.
The Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes, which track home price trends in more than 380 U.S. metro markets, said that Sacramento region prices will then see a 10.4 percent growth spurt between this year's third quarter and the third quarter of 2014.
The marginal home-price downturn projected by Fiserv this year is counter to projections made by other residential real estate analysts who cite high demand and low home inventory throughout the region.
Fiserv projections are based, in part, on data provided by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Nationally, Fiserv projects home prices to increase 0.6 percent from last year's third quarter to this year's third quarter. Over the next five years, Fiserv sees a general improvement in the nation's housing market, resulting in an average annual home price growth rate of 3.3 percent over the next five years.
Fiserv projects that by the end of 2013, home prices will be rising in nearly every metro area in the nation.
"The number of new housing units being built per household is near a record low. As momentum in the housing market builds, we will see the residential real estate sector once again make large contributions to the economic recovery," said David Stiff, Fiserv's chief economist.