WASHINGTON The budget cuts in Washington have not hit home in America, at least not yet.
A plurality of U.S. residents think federal spending cuts will have no effect at all on them or their families, according to a new McClatchy-Marist Poll. At the same time, just as many think the cuts will have no effect or a positive effect on the overall economy as think the cuts will hurt the economy, the survey found.
The numbers indicate how the politics of the spending fight in Washington have yet to be settled in the country, and why the two major parties could continue to struggle to reach an agreement in budget debates.
The battle over the federal government's future continued Sunday, with the New York Times reporting that Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., the chairman of the House Budget Committee, will introduce a budget blueprint this week that would reduce projected federal spending by $5 trillion over the next decade, repeal Obama's health care law, substantially remake Medicare and cut $770 billion from the growth of Medicaid over the next 10 years.
But Ryan suggested that he is open to negotiations with the White House, which is opposed to nearly every element of his plan.
"I think there are things that we can do that don't offend either party's philosophy," Ryan said on "Fox News Sunday."
President Barack Obama has not yet convinced the majority that the cuts will be bad for them and their country.
He has hoped the country would rise up in anger at the spending cuts and force Republicans to agree to an alternative plan to curb the deficit that would include tax increases and fewer spending cuts.
And the impact of the spending cuts being implemented are unlikely to become any clearer before Obama and Congress move on to other budget debates in coming weeks. Unpaid days off for some federal workers, for example, will not start for several more weeks at least.
"In the early innings, people are not seeing the immediacy of this," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College in New York, which conducted the poll.
"They do think it's going to be more negative than positive. They're worried about a fragile economy. But in terms of themselves, almost half don't think it's going to have an effect. They feel isolated from the impact."
Forty-nine percent of registered voters said the current cuts will have no impact at all on them or their families. Thirty-nine percent said the cuts would have a negative impact, and 10 percent said they would have a positive impact.
Independents and Republicans are more likely to see no effect.
Among independents, 52 percent expect no effect, 39 percent expect a negative effect, and 7 percent expect a positive effect.
Among Republicans, it's 52, 36, and 8 percent.
Democrats are evenly split at 41 percent each on whether the cuts will be negative or have no impact on their families. In a surprise, 14 percent of Democrats expect a positive impact for themselves, well more than independents or Republicans.
Thinking beyond their families, 47 percent of voters think the spending cuts now starting to take effect will have a negative impact on the economy, while 27 percent said they will have no effect and 20 percent said they will have a positive effect.
Economists expect the automatic cuts called a sequester to reduce growth this year by two-tenths of a percentage point, to seven-tenths of a point.
Generally, voters, by 53 to 37 percent, prefer to reduce the deficits by mostly cutting government programs and services rather than mostly by raising taxes. Working people just had a tax increase in January when Obama and the Congress let a temporary cut in the payroll tax for Social Security expire.
"Voters are not in a mood to increase taxes," Miringoff said.
Yet voters favor spending cuts for just three areas of the budget defense, energy and unemployment benefits when given specific choices. They prefer to cut defense spending over raising taxes by 53 percent to 39 percent.
Solid majorities of Democrats and independents prefer to cut defense rather than raise taxes, 55 to 39 percent for Democrats and 59 to 35 percent for independents. Even among Republicans, there was sizable support for cutting defense spending, with GOP voters split 43 to 49 percent for defense cuts over tax increases.
"I don't think defense is hands off for Republicans as much as it used to be," Miringoff said.
On other parts of the budget, poll respondents said:
By 57 to 35 percent that they prefer to cut energy spending rather than raise taxes.
By 55 to 38 percent that they prefer to cut spending on jobless benefits rather than raise taxes.
By 65 to 31 percent that they prefer to raise taxes than cut spending on education.
By 60 to 33 percent that they prefer to raise taxes than cut Social Security.
By 57 to 36 percent that they prefer to raise taxes than cut Medicare.
By 53 to 40 percent that they prefer to raise taxes than cut spending for transportation including roads and bridges.
By 50 to 42 percent that they prefer to raise taxes than cut Medicaid.
The survey of 1,233 adults was conducted March 4-7. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the continental United States were interviewed by telephone.