Data suggest Brown’s
poll lead means he’ll win
While Republicans Tim Donnelly and Neel Kashkari make their final campaign pushes in the final days before the Tuesday primary election, Gov. Jerry Brown continues to sit back, with no compelling reason to campaign.
He is widely expected to finish first on Tuesday, but just how likely is Brown to win a historic fourth term in the fall?
A new analysis of the nation’s gubernatorial races by the data-heavy website FiveThirtyEight.com finds early public opinion poll data “fairly predictive of who will win in the fall.” In an analysis of 84 races between 2006 and 2012, the site found “the average error between early polling and the election results was just under 7 percentage points.”
Brown, who has led Donnelly and Kashkari by huge margins in every poll, is in good shape, according to FiveThirtyEight.com. It put his chance of winning re-election at 99 percent. Only two other incumbent governors, Tennessee Republican Bill Haslam and South Dakota Republican Dennis Daugaard, have a 99 percent chance of re-election success this year.
– David Siders
“I know, and I’m about to faint.”
SEN. HANNAH-BETH JACKSON, Santa Barbara Democrat, told that Rocklin Sen. Ted Gaines, a Republican, had voted for two of her bills.