Paul Kitagaki Jr. / pkitagaki@sacbee.com

California Gov. Jerry Brown has been way out front in polls for the governor’s race, an indication he will win a fourth term.

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  • Budget watch

    Paying down California’s debt is the best use of the state’s reserve fund, voters say in a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll. Using the money to fund pensions and health care for retired state workers is the least popular option. Twenty-four percent favored debt payment. Twenty-one percent said state leaders should restore services cut during the recession, 16 percent said all of the money should be saved for future emergencies and 15 percent said the funds should be returned to Californians in the form of tax cuts.

    – Los Angeles Times

The Buzz: Analysis says Jerry Brown has a 99 percent success rate

Published: Friday, May. 30, 2014 - 10:52 pm

Data suggest Brown’s

poll lead means he’ll win

While Republicans Tim Donnelly and Neel Kashkari make their final campaign pushes in the final days before the Tuesday primary election, Gov. Jerry Brown continues to sit back, with no compelling reason to campaign.

He is widely expected to finish first on Tuesday, but just how likely is Brown to win a historic fourth term in the fall?

A new analysis of the nation’s gubernatorial races by the data-heavy website FiveThirtyEight.com finds early public opinion poll data “fairly predictive of who will win in the fall.” In an analysis of 84 races between 2006 and 2012, the site found “the average error between early polling and the election results was just under 7 percentage points.”

Brown, who has led Donnelly and Kashkari by huge margins in every poll, is in good shape, according to FiveThirtyEight.com. It put his chance of winning re-election at 99 percent. Only two other incumbent governors, Tennessee Republican Bill Haslam and South Dakota Republican Dennis Daugaard, have a 99 percent chance of re-election success this year.

– David Siders

Worth repeating

“I know, and I’m about to faint.”

SEN. HANNAH-BETH JACKSON, Santa Barbara Democrat, told that Rocklin Sen. Ted Gaines, a Republican, had voted for two of her bills.



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