California voters have twice rejected a measure requiring doctors to notify a parent or guardian before performing abortions on girls under 18.
But they may be changing their minds.
In a new state Field Poll, Proposition 4, the third parental notification measure to hit the ballot in four years, is leading 49 percent to 41 percent among likely voters.
Similar measures led by much smaller margins before going down to defeat in 2005 and 2006.
But California Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said parental notification proponents are picking up significant support among a key constituency targeted by the initiative backers – Latino voters who are overwhelmingly Democratic and Catholic.
Latinos support the parental notification measure by a 62 percent to 31 percent margin. Catholics support it 62 percent to 26 percent.
Though Democrats oppose the measure by 50 percent to 39 percent, that is a much smaller margin than the 23-point split in pre-election polling on Proposition 85 – a parental notification measure rejected in 2006.
Republican voters favor Proposition 4 by a nearly 3-1 margin. But independents oppose it by a 5-3 split.
Proposition 85 lost by 54 percent to 46 percent. Another notification measure – Proposition 73 – was defeated 53 percent to 47 percent in 2005.
"It was leading by very narrow margins in previous pre-election cycles. It is leading by a much bigger margin now," DiCamillo said. "It's certainly not above the 50 percent margin, and the burden on initiatives is always on the 'yes' side."
Proposition 4 has heavy financial backing from San Diego newspaper publisher James Holman and Napa Valley winemaker Don Sebastiani. It is drawing opposition from Planned Parenthood and affiliates – which spent nearly $10 million to defeat Propositions 85 and 73.
Call Peter Hecht, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5539.
