California's dropout crisis is getting worse, and a new system for tracking dropouts has given us a window into just how bad it is. The California Department of Education reported in July that one in four California high school students drops out of school, almost double the rate reported for the previous year.
More disturbing is that other categories of dropouts have also increased dramatically. Dropouts from grades 9-12 increased by 30 percent in one year (and by 83 percent in the previous five years). During that same five-year period, dropouts from grades 7 and 8 more than doubled.
Looked at another way, the number of high school dropouts in California increased nine times faster than the number of high school graduates over the last five years.
Those students who leave high school without a diploma face a lifelong challenge to keep up in an increasingly complex society. And if the state does not reverse these trends, California's economy and its taxpayers will also suffer the consequences.
Compared to high school graduates, dropouts earn lower wages, pay less in taxes, are more likely to commit crimes, are less likely to be employed, are more likely to be on welfare and are less healthy. More than two-thirds of all high school dropouts will use food stamps during their working lives.
In all, dropouts generate considerable economic losses to taxpayers and the economy. For each group of 120,000 20-year-olds who never complete high school, California sustains $46.4 billion in total economic losses – equivalent to 2.9 percent of the annual output of the state's economy.
The dropout crisis also threatens California's future economy. The Public Policy Institute of California estimates that the education needs of California's future work force will rise substantially. If present trends continue, 39 percent of the jobs in the California economy in 2020 will require a college education, but only 33 percent of the work force will have a college degree. At the other end of the spectrum, there will be twice as many workers without a high school diploma as there are jobs to support them.
Dropouts report a variety of reasons for leaving school, from uninteresting classes to missing too much school. But research suggests the causes are more complex, involving more immediate and more distant factors related to students and their environment. If the causes are complex, so are the solutions.
How can the state reverse these trends? The new data system can help. It not only provides more detailed and accurate information on the number of dropouts but also useful information to better address the problem. For example, the state can now identify the number of first-time ninth graders, a number that can be used to compute a more accurate four-year graduation rate. The data system also can identify how many students are successfully promoted from one grade to another, which can be used for school accountability and for targeting programs to help failing students. The state should now move forward to further enhance the data system and its use. This includes tracking students from preschool through college and into the work force.
But better data, while helpful, is only one way to help the state address this growing crisis. The biggest challenge is how to improve the schools and districts with the highest dropout rates. The state's primary tools for supporting school improvement – money and information on effective practices – are inadequate.
The rising dropout rates underscore the need for a different and more comprehensive approach. Earlier this year, the California Dropout Research Project issued a report, "Solving California's Dropout Crisis," recommending a series of actions that the state, school districts and schools can take to solve California's dropout crisis.
The research literature identifies four proven strategies that schools should adopt:
1. Create a personalized learning environment that fosters meaningful relationships of trust and support between students and teachers.
Russell Rumberger is professor of education in the Gevirtz Graduate School of Education at University of California, Santa Barbara, and director of the California Dropout Research Project (http://lmri.ucsb.edu/dropouts/).
