Clinton loses big chunk of her lead in California

In a sign that Californians are tapping into a presidential primary season largely playing out elsewhere, the race here between Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama has narrowed substantially since October, according to a Field Poll released Tuesday.

Clinton still holds a 14-point lead over fellow U.S. Sen. Obama among likely voters in the Democratic primary, 36 percent to 22 percent. But the margin between the two has dropped from the 25-point gap Field recorded just two months ago.

Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said his findings show California voters – who will go to the polls Feb. 5 – have started to tune in to the primary debate raging two and three time zones away.

"The events of Iowa and elsewhere are having an effect," he said. "Many voters in California were kind of reflexively behind Clinton. Now, they're not as sure. … Hillary Clinton has been on the defensive more in the last month than she has in the entire campaign."

The tightening in California reflects a similar dynamic in states whose voters will make their choices in January.

An average of state polls conducted in New Hampshire, for instance, shows Clinton's lead there fell from 19 points in October to 11.5 points in November. More recent polls in New Hampshire show a statistical dead heat.

"People in Iowa and New Hampshire are paying more attention," said Bill Carrick, a California-based Democratic political consultant. "They are always a predictor of the voting behavior in the states that come after them. … It looks like we're going to have a competitive situation here."

While support for Clinton in California dropped from 45 percent to 36 percent since October, Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards each picked up two points, to 22 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

The big change came in the proportion of undecided voters – from 14 percent in October to 20 percent in the current poll.

One poll respondent from Sacramento, Rand Ashenbremer, said he has watched the campaign unfold in other states and came to support Obama only recently but still isn't fully committed. "Personally, my opinions could change," he said.

Ashenbremer is considering the same attributes both Clinton and Obama are discussing in television ads in early-voting states: experience and change.

Ashenbremer said he likes Obama for "kind of the same reason I thought Arnold Schwarzenegger might be a good choice for governor – they don't seem to be much like a politician. The less experience in this political theater is an advantage."

Brian Grupe, a 22-year-old graduating senior at California State University, Sacramento, told pollsters he favors Clinton, and said Tuesday that he remains "semi-firm" with her but that his ultimate choice will come down to Clinton or Obama.

"I like Hillary," Grupe said. "I like that she's a Clinton. She'll have Bill Clinton behind her and I think they'll make a great team."

Either way, electing Clinton the first woman president or Obama the first African American president would bring change, he said. "Something that falls outside the mold will shake up America."

Obama's perceived lack of experience "really has nothing to do with it," Grupe said. "It doesn't matter how old you are or what you've done; you either know how to do your job or you don't."

DiCamillo said support for Clinton in California remains "formidable." Women, who will make up 58 percent of the electorate in the Democratic primary, support her over Obama 41 percent to 21 percent. Latinos back the former first lady 42 percent to 22 percent.

Obama, meanwhile, leads among African American voters, 38 percent to 28 percent, and is running close to Clinton among voters under 39 and those who decline to state a party preference. Decline-to-state voters are eligible to vote in the Democratic primary.

"Obama needs to broaden the base to appeal to more younger women and more nonpartisans," DiCamillo said.

The poll also showed 40 percent of Edwards voters in California would move to Obama if Edwards drops out after the early primaries, compared with 24 percent who would join the Clinton campaign.

"After two terms of George W. Bush, Democrats want serious change," Carrick said. "Obama is articulating that in his campaign, (and) there's a case to be made for Edwards' more populist message. He says he's for change, too."

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