CTNS SCRIPTS
CAPITOL TELEVISION NEWS SERVICE
SACRAMENTO, CA
(916) 446-7890
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24TH , 2008
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1. DUELING POLLS VO/SOT
2. DATABASE AUDITS VO/SOT
3. STUDENT TOWN HALL VO/SOT
4. MICRO-LENDERS, MEET SMALL BUSINESS VO/SOT
1. DUELING POLLS VO/SOT
LIVE:
RESULTS OF PUBLIC OPINION POLLS ON ISSUES SUCH AS WHO'S GOING TO BE ELECTED PRESIDENT OR WHICH BALLOT MEASURES WILL PASS ARE NOT JUST A COUNT OF RESPONSES TO QUESTIONS TAKEN BY POLL TAKERS. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA PRESIDENT MARK BALDASSARE SAYS POLLING COMPANIES CHANGE THEIR RAW POLLING DATA IN AN EFFORT TO INCREASE THEIR POLLS' ACCURACY.
SUPER: TODAY/STATE CAPITOL
VO: (:30)
ALONG WITH THE FIELD POLL, POLLING RESULTS PUBLISHED BY THE P-P-I-C ARE AMONG THOSE MOST FREQUENTLY REPORTED BY MEDIA OUTLETS IN CALIFORNIA. BUT RESULTS FROM COMPETING POLLSTERS FREQUENTLY DON'T MATCH. NATIONAL POLLS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE CURRENTLY VARY FROM A NEAR DEAD HEAT TO A DIFFERENCE OF SEVERAL PERCENTAGE POINTS. BALDASSARE SAYS POLL RESULTS VARY BECAUSE POLLING COMPANIES USE VARYING METHODS TO ADJUST THEIR RESULTS. FOR EXAMPLE, IF THE RAW DATA FROM POLL TAKERS INCLUDE MORE RESPONSES FROM MEN THAN WOMEN, THE WOMEN'S' REPONSES ARE MULTIPLIED TO REFLECT THE ACTUAL MALE-FEMALE BREAKDOWN FOR THE AREA THE POLL IS INTENDED TO REPRESENT.
SUPER: MARK BALDASSARE/ PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA
SOT: (:29)
SAYS: "SO THE FIRST THING THAT HAPPENS WHEN A POLL COMES OUT OF THE FIELD IS THAT YOU LOOK AT THE DEMOGRAPHICS, THE AGE, THE GENDER, THE RACE, THE GEOGRAPHY, AND UH, YOU WILL MAKE STATISTICAL ADJUSTMENTS WHICH ARE CALLED WEIGHTING. IF YOUR, YOUR POLL NUMBERS, UM, ARE UNDER REPORTING OR OVER REPORTING CERTAIN GROUPS, MEN OR WOMEN FOR INSTANCE, AND UM, IF YOU DON'T DO THOSE WEIGHTINGS, YOUR UM, YOUR FINDINGS WILL, WILL NOT BE RELIABLE."
VO TAG:
BALDASSARE ALSO SAYS IF VOTERS WANT TO DETERMINE THE ACCURACY OF A PARTICULAR POLL ON THEIR OWN, HE SUGGESTS THEY RESEARCH THE ACCURACY OF RESULTS FROM EARLIER POLLS BY THE SAME POLLING COMPANY, THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE SURVEYED, AND WHETHER THE COMPANY RELEASES THE RESULTS OF ALL QUESTIONS IT ASKED. HE SAYS POLL RESULTS CAN ALSO BE SKEWED BY COLLECTING POLL RESULTS OVER ONE OR TWO DAYS VERSUS AN ENTIRE WEEK, THE WORDING, AND EVEN THE ORDER IN WHICH THE QUESTIONS ARE ASKED.
EDITOR'S NOTE: THE RESULTS OF THE MOST RECENT P.P.I.C. POLL, THE LAST IT WILL CONDUCT BEFORE THE NOVEMBER ELECTION, ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT: http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.asp?i=846
EXTRA BITES:
SUPER: MARK BALDASSARE/ PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA
SOT: (:14)
SAYS: "WE ALWAYS CONDUCT SURVEYS OVER AT LEAST SEVEN DAYS SO WE HAVE UH, SOMETHING FROM EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. SO IF SOMETHING IS DONE ON A MONDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT FOR INSTANCE, PARTICULARLY IF THERE'S A GOOD FOOTBALL GAME ON, OR A WORLD SERIES OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, THAT WILL DEFINITELY SKOO-SKEW YOUR RESULTS,
ON MOST RECENT PPIC POLL RESULTS:
SOT: (:32)
SAYS: "I'M JUST UH, SHOCKED AT WHERE PUBLIC OPINION IS IN TERMS OF HOW PEOPLE ARE VIEWING HE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, FEDERAL LEADERSHIP NOW, AND I RECOGNIZE THAT THERE'S A VERY DIFFICULT TIME FR THE, FOR THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY, AND UM, THAT PEOPLE ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT IT, THE RATINGS OF NOT JUST CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENT BUT OVERALL TRUST IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT JUST SPEAK TO WHAT CHALLENGE IT IS FOR WHOEVER WINS THIS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, AND WHO GETS ELECTED FOR CONGRESS TO RESTORE CONFIDENCE.
