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Home Front: Once again, mortgage rates spike in July

Published: Friday, Jul. 25, 2008 - 12:00 am | Page 1D

We're seeing it for a third summer in a row, a sudden July spike in mortgage rates.

This week, rates soared nationally to an average of 6.63 percent for 30-year, fixed-rate loans, according to the newest survey by mortgage giant Freddie Mac.

Add points, and the real estate industry starts whispering again about the dreaded psychological barrier of 7 percent.

Just a week ago, rates averaged 6.26 percent. Freddie Mac sees the usual suspects behind the sharp rise: fears of inflation and further weakness in housing.

Industry tracker Bankrate.com showed an even higher average this week, pegging 30-year rates at 6.77 percent. "There's no single explanation for the rise," Bankrate columnist Holden Lewis wrote Thursday.

Since the housing market downturn began in earnest three years ago, Home Front has noticed a rate crest every summer about this time. In 2006, average mortgage rates topped out for the year in July at 6.76 percent.

In July 2007, rates peaked for the year at 6.70 percent, according to the Freddie Mac survey.

What's it mean?

Probably nothing too predictable, says Sacramento loan consultant Karla Hawe, echoing Bankrate's Lewis.

"Every month, it seems we are grasping for an indicator that will tell us which way rates will go," said Hawe, of BWC Mortgage Services. "I think it's more about inflation today. I believe the government will be successful at (curbing) it, which will make for a stronger dollar. Therefore, I don't see rates going past 7 percent this year."

In Sacramento, Coldwell Banker real estate agent Viki Benbow hopes not. But she's telling clients, "There's a much higher probability that interest rates will climb rather than go down."

Benbow said this is why people shouldn't wait. But it's hard to tell. Others preach that higher rates will drive prices lower.

It's interesting that 7 percent inspires such angst. A look at Freddie Mac archives shows that rates in 2000 peaked at 8.52 percent in May. Remember the good old days in January 1995? Mortgage rates averaged 9.15 percent. And let's not even start about October 1980, a harsh season for buyers when rates topped out at 18.45 percent.

A common-sense approach

Home Front gets an endless stream of advice and pointers about real estate. Here are some sensible tips to help buyers qualify for mortgages, from another new social networking site, Peoplejam.com.

• Inspect all your credit reports from Equifax, Experian and Transunion and make sure the information is accurate.

• Improve your FICO score by paying down debt and paying your credit accounts on time.

• Save for a down payment. You'll need a minimum of 3 percent and as much as 10 percent.

• Stick with one employer. Mortgage lenders like stability.

• Be realistic. Try to limit your mortgage payment to 25 percent of your monthly household income.

The seal of approval

Home builders seem to live and die by their J.D. Power and Associates ratings. Now, so will real estate agents.

This week, the Westlake Village industry ranker released results of its "inaugural study" of national real estate giants.

J.D. Power named Keller Williams the highest-rated real estate firm for satisfying homebuyers. Prudential was tops for satisfying home sellers.

In a statement, J.D. Power officials said that despite widespread use of the Internet in real estate, agents are still the key to customer satisfaction.


Call The Bee's Jim Wasserman, (916) 321-1102. Read his Home Front blog at www.sacbee.com/blogs.


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