After years of gloomy forecasts and despite a still-declining real estate market, something new is creeping into the housing forecasts: Hope.
It's a sense that economists can see outlines of an emerging bottom. It's not universal, but national reports this week suggest a glimmer "that the severity may be waning."
That's based on the glut of new homes falling to a five-month low, prices beginning to fall more slowly and even rise in some U.S. cities.
"The bottom of the housing market is coming into view," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com.
Zandi had a similar forecast for Sacramento.
"We are at the beginning of the end of the Sacramento housing crash," he said late Wednesday. Zandi said the region's market will be on solid ground within a year.
Zandi, who has generally been more pessimistic through the housing crisis than many real estate industry insiders, said, "There are more house price declines to come, but the worst of the free fall in prices is at hand."
Zandi made the comments in an e-mail after The Bee requested his views on the Sacramento market.
"There remain some serious threats to the outlook, including the ongoing credit crunch and weak job market, but with a bit of luck, including stable oil prices, and good policymaking, the Sacramento housing market will find its footing by this time next year," he said.
"Prices will resume rising again early in the next decade."
Zandi said another 5 percent to 10 percent declines in home prices will "restore housing affordability" in Sacramento and coax more first-time buyers back into the market.
Many have already jumped in as sales prices the past year have fallen by one-third across much of the region. Sales have risen above last year's levels for four straight months in the Sacramento region and statewide as more buyers can afford lower prices.
Among them is Rachel Garcia of Sacramento, who recently bought a $114,000 bank repo off Norwood Avenue just north of Interstate 80 in Sacramento.
"I'm 28 and this is the biggest dream I've always wanted to accomplish," she said. "If the market wasn't the way it is, I couldn't have made a buy."
Garcia said she's untroubled by prospects of further declines in home values. She said she is in her house for the long term.
"Honestly, I just wanted a house. I don't really see it as an investment. Hopefully, I'll get married in the house and have children and the dog will have puppies."
Concerns still exist however, about foreclosures, which still haven't peaked in the Sacramento region.
Scott Thompson, a partner at Citrus Heights-based Mortgage Resolution Services, said he thinks a shortage of buyers will begin to show late this year.
"I think we are plowing through all the good buyers who are enthusiastically in the market. We're going to get to November and be at the end of the buyer pool," he said.
Thompson predicted the median sales price in Sacramento County -- which dipped to $210,000 last month for new and existing homes combined -- will fall below $200,000.
Call The Bee's Jim Wasserman, (916) 321-1102. Read his blog on real estate, Home Front, at www.sacbee.com/blogs.
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