Most urban analysts believe Sacramento's future is bright. But Sacramento-area residents know one thing for sure: The region can't successfully grow until it gets through this housing slump.

How long will that take?

Here's one of the more reassuring comments we've heard in a while. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com and a longtime housing market bear, says Sacramento should be back on its feet within a year.

"We are at the beginning of the end of the Sacramento housing crash," Zandi told Home Front in an e-mail this week. "There are more house price declines to come, but the worst of the free fall in prices is at hand."

Just days ago, Zandi told national media that new indicators – a five-month low in unsold new houses and an easing of home price declines in some parts of the nation – showed "the bottom of the housing market is coming into view."

And that applies to Sacramento, Zandi told Home Front. But he offers some caveats.

"There remain some serious threats to the outlook, including the ongoing credit crunch and weak job market," he said. "But with a bit of luck, including stable oil prices and good policymaking, the Sacramento housing market will find its footing by this time next year. And prices will resume rising again early in the next decade."

Zandi, author of "Financial Shock," one of the first books about the housing collapse, said another 5 percent to 10 percent decline in prices will "restore housing affordability and coax first-time buyers back into the market."

Actually, that's already happened in a big way. This summer brought thousands into the market as area sales prices fell by a third over the past year.

As affordability has grown, buyers have driven sales above last year's levels for four straight months in Sacramento and statewide. Some disparage the comparison to last year's lousy numbers. But in Sacramento, the boosts came after three straight years of year-over-year declines.

The sales occurred despite widespread belief that the market will decline more. Placer County real estate agent Jaye Crews said many buyers just tired of waiting for a bottom.

"They don't care. They want a house," she said.

Rachel Garcia of Sacramento was one of them. She bought a $114,000 bank-owned home in the Westgate neighborhood north of Interstate 80.

"I'm 28, and this is the biggest dream I've always wanted to accomplish," she said. "If the market wasn't the way it is, I couldn't have made a buy."

Garcia, a lead instructional assistant at American River College, said she's untroubled by prospects of more declines. She's in it for the long term.

"Honestly, I just wanted a house. I don't really see it as an investment. Hopefully, I'll get married in the house and have children and the dog will have puppies," she said.

Ann McHatton also bought in April, in Elk Grove's Laguna West neighborhood. A public services assistant at the Sacramento City College Foundation, she rented for a year after selling her Natomas home in early 2007.

Crews, her agent, suggested she wait on buying until prices fell some more. The prices fell – but McHatton didn't much care for renting.

"But it finally came down to a quality-of-life issue," said McHatton. "I wanted a home that better suited my needs, and I couldn't let the market be an issue any longer. I intend to stay where I am for some time."

Others, meanwhile, wait, wondering how much more prices will drop. Scott Thompson, a partner at Citrus Heights-based Mortgage Resolution Services, doesn't see a bottom any time soon.

"I think we are plowing through all the good buyers who are enthusiastically in the market," he said. "We're going to get to November and be at the end of the buyer pool."

Thompson believes the median sales price in Sacramento County – $208,750 last month for existing homes – is headed below $200,000.

Up around the bend in Tahoe

If you bought a Creedence Clearwater Revival album in the 1970s, you helped build a 6,400-square-foot home now for sale at Lake Tahoe.

Band drummer Doug Clifford built the house in 1980 and raised his three children there before selling to its current owner, said listing agent Chase International.

The new owner renovated the five-bedroom, three-story home in 2006. It includes a 200-square-foot wine cellar. Clifford's music studio is still there.

Asking price for the home near Incline Village: $5.7 million. Lake view is included.

Call The Bee's Jim Wasserman, (916) 321-1102. Read his blog on real estate, Home Front, at www.sacbee.com/blogs.