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Home Front: Home inventory trimmed in capital, W. Sac

Published: Friday, Sep. 19, 2008 - 12:00 am | Page 1B
Last Modified: Friday, Sep. 19, 2008 - 10:27 am

After such a long spell of lousy news on the housing front – for sellers and owners, that is – here's a surprise: In today's housing market, there are just 3.9 months of for-sale inventory in Sacramento County and West Sacramento.

The number, from the Sacramento Association of Realtors, means it would take just about four months to sell every listing inside its territory at the current sales pace.

A year ago, SAR pegged that number at 11.4 months.

In real estate, it's assumed that inventory levels above six months constitute a buyers' market. Below three months is a sellers' market. In between is neutral.

Somehow, buyers have trimmed inventory into a neutral market – now leaning toward a sellers' market – even as foreclosures kept adding to it.

Sacramento researcher TrendGraphix shows the pattern across El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties. For-sale inventory in August – at 11,369 homes – is the lowest since January 2007. About one in four are homes repossessed by banks.

Today, there are almost 5,000 fewer homes for sale than in August 2007. That's when the region set its newest inventory record of 16,262 for-sale signs.

Analysts say it's not just sales that have done the trimming. It's the determination of sellers to wait out this market.

"To me that speaks of the number of people who don't want to compete with foreclosures," said Andrew LePage, analyst with MDA DataQuick. "You have a lot of sellers waiting for a healthier market, hoping for one in the not-too-distant future," he said.

Last year, real estate agents feared inventory might reach a disastrous 25,000 this year. They got lucky so far instead.

Tahoe home hits gold

Can you imagine the commission check on this one? Lake Tahoe agent Alan Heoney just closed the deal on a $20 million shoreline property near Tahoe City.

It's being called the biggest sale in the history of the Tahoe Sierra Board of Realtors. The group covers the lake's north and west shores and Truckee. It does not include the south shore or Incline Village.

The property includes a two-story house, four buildings and seven acres of waterfront. It's been in the same family – which declined to be identified – since the 1930s.

In a statement, Heoney, of Prudential California Realty, called it "an expansive waterfront setting with land capability that offers dramatic residential and landscape opportunities."

In short: knockout view.

Subprime is a dirty word

Federal statistics now show how fast subprime lending, which did so much to fuel the Sacramento housing bubble, fell out of favor in 2007.

In 2006, subprime loans accounted for 28 percent of mortgage lending in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties, according to the Federal Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data. The market by then already was cooling.

In 2007, subprime lending fell by more than half, to 12 percent of the region's home loans. By spring of 2007 the word "subprime" was becoming quite familiar. It usually appeared right in front of another word that's now quite common: "meltdown."

Down-payment aid backed

In the political battle to keep seller-funded down payment assistance from being banned Oct. 1, supporters scored a key win Tuesday. The House Financial Services Committee passed a bill to resurrect the practice.

The bill, adding new limits to the assistance, goes to the full House and Senate for consideration. It must also be signed by President Bush.

Sacramento's Nehemiah Corp. of America and other nonprofits that provide down-payment assistance are trying to overturn a clause in the nation's recent omnibus housing bill that banned the long-controversial practice.

Thursday, the California Building Industry Association e-mailed alerts to members, urging them to write to congressional representatives in support. The National Association of Realtors also declared its support.

The practice, pioneered in Sacramento in the 1990s, helps buyers who can afford monthly payments but not the down payment.

Though touted by supporters as a path to home ownership, federal housing officials long have fought it. They've contended that it leads to a disproportionate share of foreclosures and inflates home prices for those who can least afford it. Nehemiah disputes that.


Call The Bee's Jim Wasserman, (916) 321-1102. Read his blog on real estate, Home Front, at www.sacbee.com/blogs.


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