Everyone knows that things are bad in real estate. But the inner details and endless speculation are still as fascinating as a good movie.

When the industry gathers it asks: How many publicly traded home builders will go under? Are we born again now after the presidential election? How bad is all this compared with the Great Depression?

Home Front listened in this week when area building industry reps gathered to hear what their consultants think. San Diego-based Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors held the floor and tried hard not to scare a paying, vulnerable audience half to death.

Beyond, the statistics – fairly bad, such as a 14-year supply of new home lots in Yuba and Sutter counties – here's what's really going on in real estate:

• The next generation of home builders will probably not learn a lesson from today's housing meltdown.

The Sullivan Group's Tim Sullivan and Dean Wehrli said builders next time must not go crazy. They must focus on the income levels of regions where they build. Be prudent. Go easy on the $500,000 homes.

But Tom Jacobs, Western region chief of Kimball Hill Homes (which filed for bankruptcy protection last April), said, "I think the next generation of home builders will make the same mistake."

• Half the nation's big publicly traded home builders may yet fall.

David Butler, vice president for JPMorgan Real Estate, repeated what he heard at a similar gathering in Hawaii: "Three out of four believed that half the Wall Street home builders will not be around in three or four years."

Jacobs added, "If you look at the public companies, you can see debt coming up and not enough revenue to meet it."

• Maybe Barack Obama can save the day with all that stuff about "hope."

"A new year and a new president who ran on hope and change could be the beginnings of a confidence rebuilder," said Sullivan. "The fact that there's something new could be a positive for us."

• But if that doesn't work, place all hope in Generation Y.

That's the many children of fertile baby boomers. The forward edge is approaching its 30s – prime buying years – and most of these kids are renting.

"This generation is even bigger than the baby boom," said Sullivan. "The pig in the python is coming."

• Real estate is bad, sure. But it could be so much worse.

In 1933, the U.S. jobless rate was 25 percent. Today it's 6.5 percent, said Sullivan.

In the 1930s, the gross domestic product fell 25 percent. It's just starting to fall now, he said.

In the 1930s, 40 percent of mortgages were delinquent. Now it's less than 5 percent.

Bank failures? The 1930s had 9,000. So far this time, it's fewer than 40.

Always leave them smiling.

Restoring homes' historic charm

Now and then, it's enjoyable to get away from numbers and guessing about the real estate economy and just go visit a historic home in renovation.

One at a time in this city, some old Victorian or other style pops up with new paint downtown or in midtown. Sometimes it's two in a row, which makes the block shine. When a block shines, so does the neighborhood and so on.

Jayne Ellen Woody, president of Sacramento's Vintage Properties, showed an emerging example on Wednesday.

Woody, who manages rental properties, has carved out a unique specialty. She persuades owners to restore big old houses to some of their period charm. A lot of these old houses are chopped up into rentals. The theory is: Renters will pay more for a place with historic capital ambience.

Wednesday, Woody showed a Fremont Park-area apartment near 16th and Q streets that rented for $450 a month just three years ago and most recently for $910. She's doing an approximate $8,000 makeover – with wood stains, colorful paint and period fixtures – that she says will attract rent of up to $1,245 a month.

It's one apartment with an oak floor and leaded glass, part of a century-old home owned by the builder's daughter. Outside, it's being repainted. Next door is another old house that got the Woody treatment.

Woody says there's a young monied professional class in Sacramento that jumps at these old apartments. For the rest of us, the residential views on these historic capital streets get better and better.

Area Realtors group turns 100

Sacramento is showing its age. The Sacramento Association of Realtors gathers today to celebrate its 100th birthday.

The association traces its roots to a group of agents who gathered in 1906 and 1907 to talk about being more professional. At the time, their horse-and-buggy capital held 40,000 residents. Most homeowners lived inside the downtown areas now bounded by freeways.

Members who followed these founders have sold houses through numerous boom and busts as the capital region became home to about two million people.

Some milestones as the SAR plans to celebrate this evening.

• 1917: Dan Carmichael, president of SAR in 1910, was elected mayor of Sacramento.

• 1979: Neva Cimarolli became SAR's first woman president.

• 2000: Bill Nunally became the first African American president of SAR.

The association claims more than 6,000 members.

Call The Bee's Jim Wasserman, (916) 321-1102. Read his blog on real estate, Home Front, at www.sacbee.com/blogs.