It's a $530 million bet in a dicey economy.

The Sacramento area's newest Indian casino, the Red Hawk Casino off Highway 50 in Shingle Springs, is ready to open just as consumers are snapping shut their wallets. The casino industry is slumping, revenues are falling and some operators are running into financial stress.

Analysts say Red Hawk probably won't do as well at the start as originally forecast by its owners, the Shingle Springs Band of Miwok Indians. The casino opens in late December.

"You're going to see less traffic than you would in a good economy," said Ken Adams, a gambling consultant in Reno.

Yet analysts also believe Red Hawk, which endured years of litigation before breaking ground, will prevail. It will take some business from other casinos in the area, including the ultra-successful Thunder Valley Casino near Lincoln. It will bring a boom to a quiet patch of El Dorado County and is being warmly welcomed by county officials who once fought to keep it out.

The weak economy might even help Red Hawk a little. To save money, customers might choose Shingle Springs instead of driving to Reno or Lake Tahoe, where casinos are already struggling because of Indian gambling.

"The people in South Lake Tahoe think it's going to eat their lunch," Adams said.

But the downturn will probably hurt everyone. Thunder Valley has gone flat even though it's getting more customers as area residents pass up trips to Reno and Las Vegas. "People aren't spending as much, they're not gambling as much," said spokesman Doug Elmets.

Still, while much of the industry is struggling, the casinos around Sacramento are expanding. As Red Hawk nears completion, Thunder Valley is working on a hotel tower, performing arts center and other improvements at a reported cost of $1 billion. Cache Creek Casino Resort in the Capay Valley is spending $300 million to triple its hotel capacity and add restaurants and a conference center.

Even in a recession, Red Hawk could generate revenue of $250 million a year, said Bill Eadington of the Institute for the Study of Gambling & Commercial Gaming at the University of Nevada, Reno. That's about half what he estimates Thunder Valley takes in.

Red Hawk "may not do as well as they had hoped when they open, but I'm sure they'll be successful," said Richard Wells, a former Harrah's Entertainment Inc. executive who runs Wells Gaming Research in Reno.

"While we're not recession-proof or impervious to it, we're more resilient than other categories," said Heidi Hamers, Red Hawk's vice president for marketing. "We feel it, but we don't feel it like some other businesses do."

The tribe's chairman, Nick Fonseca, declined to be interviewed. Red Hawk is run by Lakes Entertainment Inc., a Minneapolis casino operator.

With a cost of $530 million, Red Hawk is an ambitious project. The Miwoks paid for construction of new highway exit ramps. There will be six restaurants and 88,000 square feet of casino space.

The facility will open with 2,000 slots, but the tribe's compact with the state will allow it to install up to 5,000 machines. In return, the tribe will pay the state 20 percent to 25 percent of slot revenue, more than any other gambling tribe in the state.

The casino is opening when other projects are being mothballed. Work recently halted on the Echelon, a $4.8 billion casino on the Las Vegas Strip. Harrah's is scaling back construction of a Mississippi casino, Margaritaville, named for the Jimmy Buffett song.

Publicly traded casino stocks have plummeted. Station Casinos, which manages Thunder Valley and is attempting to build casinos in Chico and Rohnert Park, had its credit rating downgraded by Moody's Investors Service.

Perhaps the most reliable indicator of the industry's health, gambling revenue in Nevada, fell 5.4 percent in September. Revenue fell 20 percent in Reno and 17 percent at Lake Tahoe.

Besides fighting a weak economy, Red Hawk also must establish itself against well-known California casinos. It's just an hour's drive from both Thunder Valley and Jackson Rancheria Casino.

Call The Bee's Dale Kasler, (916) 321-1066. Read his blog on the economy, Home Front, at www.sacbee.com/blogs.