At the end of a tumultuous year, The Bee asked a few questions of experts in a variety of areas to get their opinions on where we are now and where we're headed in the coming year.
We selected representatives from key sectors energy, green tech, banking and retail that were in the news in 2008 and could be equally important in 2009. And we spoke with an economist to get a sense not only of the overall picture, but of how the economic crisis is changing the way we live, in Sacramento and across the county.
Here's what they had to say.
Economy
Gerald J. Swanson is a professor and the Thomas R. Brown Chair in Economic Education at the Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona. A best-selling author, he is an expert in public finance, economic education and health economics, and prepared the 2009 national economic outlook for the University of Arizona.
His most recent book, 2004's "America the Broke," (Doubleday/Random House) was a Pulitzer Prize nominee.
What's the economic outlook for 2009, and what kind of changes will the financial crisis bring?
Unfortunately, the first half of 2009 will be much worse than 2008. There will be a massive jump in unemployment. Companies have been very conservative in their employment, but they've reached the breaking point. There's another wave of (mortgage) resets waiting to happen. Three-year (adjustable rate mortgages) will start to reset in 2009. That, coupled with the fact that even if you didn't have the housing crisis, more unemployment means fewer homeowners will be able to afford their mortgage payments. This will be the longest, deepest recession since World War II. What's going to make this one deeper is that it's global.
What's different about this recession is that, in other recessions, housing values have held up. But the shock to the homeowner of a loss of equity has been a hit to their long-term financial future. Between stocks, the housing market and an unstable world, (consumers) have zipped up their wallets and headed for the trenches.
Are government actions helping us to deal with the crisis?
What the federal government can do and what the states can do are vastly different things. We're talking about stimulus numbers that we've never, ever used before, but they'll be offset by what state and local governments are facing. It looks good on the federal side, but there's a lot working against it. There's an economic stimulus (planned), but state and local governments are cutting back.
How are we changed by what has happened in the economy? What decisions have we had to make as a result?
As a country, we're being forced to get out of debt. That's very healthy. We'd become addicted to debt. Now we're going through detox. Going through this is going to be painful. I think we'll be in bad shape for all of (2009) without a doubt.
I honestly think that we were the ultimate consumer nation. We bought things we didn't need. We were on a roll where we bought more than we wanted it was part of our behavior. It was, 'I need a new thing,' and, now I think we've stopped that big-time.
I'm surprised at how quickly we slammed the brakes on that behavior. (Consumers) are looking at their closets, they're looking at their wardrobes maybe they were looking at buying a new appliance and now they're saying their clothes fit. Their appliances work.
It's healthy that we're reassessing our values. We've become more conscious about what we consume in terms of energy, and now that's moving to other areas. Maybe now we're coming down to Earth. Deep in my heart, I think it's positive. It's a realignment that had to happen, and it will be helpful in the long run.
Darrell Smith
Energy
Dan Sperling, 57, is a professor of civil engineering and environmental science and policy at the University of California, Davis, and a founding director of the Institute for Transportation Studies at UCD. He also serves on the California Air Resources Board. An internationally quoted expert on energy and transportation, he chairs the Future of Mobility Council of the Davos World Economic Forum.





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