A downhill slide in home prices that's lasted most of 44 months in the capital region is showing signs of leveling out.
Credit a dwindling supply of cheap bank repossessions in the sales mix. Or are prices finally be finding their level after dropping nearly 60 percent since 2005?
Whatever the explanation, median sales prices of existing homes are stabilizing in the $160,000 range so far this year in Sacramento County, the largest sector of the area housing market. The median hasn't been that low since April 2001.
"I think we're at this point below what should have been the rational bottom," said Scott Thompson, a partner at Mortgage Resolution Services in Carmichael.
April sales statistics released Thursday by researcher MDA DataQuick show that after the county's median sales price settled at $162,000 in January and February it has steadied at $160,000 in March and April. Prices, meanwhile, have risen much of this year in the commuter markets north of Sacramento:
Yuba County saw median sales prices the point where half cost more and half less climb from $132,250 in February to $140,250 in March and to $147,500 in April.
Sutter County prices rose from $145,000 in February to $155,000 in March and $165,000 in April.
For the moment at least, it's a change from the free-fall that's ripped the housing market since its mid-2005 peaks. The area has seen almost 38,000 foreclosures and many homeowners owe more than their houses are worth.
The same flattening pattern is revealing itself across Southern California and the Bay Area, DataQuick pricing statistics showed this week.
One factor is a lower concentration of heavily discounted bank repos in the market, DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said Thursday.
Bank repos were 64.6 percent of April sales in Sacramento County, down from 71 percent in January. And repos accounted for just 15 percent of the region's for-sale signs in April, half the rate in November when many banks launched temporary foreclosure moratoriums.
Industry watchers say banks are ramping up foreclosures again and expect a new round of discounted repos to hit the markets this summer. That could renew pressure on the market's fragile stability.
"I think prices are going to go lower," said Thompson.
DataQuick's LePage added, "We've been talking about how this could be short-lived if we have another wave of foreclosures coming."
Some analysts, including mortgage expert Mark Hanson of the Field Check Group in Menlo Park, already argue that flat or rising median prices really aren't an indicator of approaching bottom, but a sign of higher-end homes being foreclosed and resold.
Altogether 3,375 homes changed hands in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties in April, DataQuick reported. That was down slightly from 3,419 closed escrows in March. But it was the best April since 2006 and the 13th straight month that sales were higher than the same month a year earlier.
The sales came amid a flurry of enticements to pull buyers into the market, including an $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers, a $10,000 state tax credit for new-home buyers in California, and 10 straight weeks of mortgage rates below 5 percent for 30-year loans, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac.
Among April's sellers was Craig Martinez of Sacramento, who sold a Land Park home he'd owned for 11 years.
"We listed it on a Friday and we showed it on Saturday and it was gone," he said. Martinez, a graphic artist and instructor at American River College, and his wife found themselves in an enviable position of receiving multiple offers They got $10,000 more than their $299,500 asking price, then closed escrow on a bigger house in South Land Park.
It's taking longer for Barbara Roberts, five weeks into listing her $495,000 house on 5.5 acres in Placerville. She is selling to downsize, she said.
"There's lots of people looking," said Roberts. "But I'm not sure how many have that kind of money. I'm pleased with the amount of people looking. It only takes one."
Both Martinez, as a move-up buyer, and Roberts, as a downsizer, are a small part of a market now dominated by foreclosure properties and so-called "short sales." Those are distressed homes where sellers hope to persuade lenders to take less than owed to avoid higher costs of foreclosing. In many suburban neighborhoods half or more of the homes for sale are short sales.
Home builders, too, are smaller players in the region.
New homes were just 9.6 percent of closed escrows in the area in April, DataQuick reported. Four years ago, new home sales were 24.5 percent of closed escrows.
Call The Bee's Jim Wasserman, (916) 321-1102. Read his blog on real estate, Home Front, at www.sacbee.com/blogs.


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