California, which has lost 800,000 jobs in this recession, will lose 200,000 more before it ends late this year, University of the Pacific forecasters said Wednesday in Stockton.
The university's Business Forecasting Center predicted California unemployment will peak at 12.3 percent in early 2010 and remain in double digits through the end of 2011.
Officials singled out the Central Valley for an especially hard knock from tax hikes and massive expected state and local government budget cuts.
"The state budget crisis is a dangerous aftershock to a region still reeling from the foreclosure earthquake," said forecasting center director Jeff Michael.
He said job numbers will return to pre-recession levels in mid-2012 in the Bay Area. It will take longer elsewhere, with Sacramento reaching pre-recession employment in late 2013, he said.
Statewide unemployment stood at a modern record of 11.5 percent in May, the state Employment Development Department reported. The jobless rate was 11.1 percent in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties.
Other highlights:
• Housing starts statewide will hit bottom this year at 36,000 residential units. They'll rise past 100,000 units in 2011 and exceed 150,000 units by 2013. The most recent high was 212,960 in 2004, according to the California Building Industry Association.
• New car and truck sales will fall to nearly 1 million in 2009, down from 2 million a year most of the past decade. Sales will reach 1.5 million in 2010 and 1.7 million in 2011.
• Retail sales will take until 2011 to recover 2007 levels.
• Health care is the only economic sector that will not contract this year.
Call The Bee's Jim Wasserman, (916) 321-1102. Read his blog on real estate, Home Front, at www.sacbee.com/blogs.
What You Should Know About Comments on Sacbee.com
Sacbee.com is happy to provide a forum for reader interaction, discussion, feedback and reaction to our stories. However, we reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments or ban users who can't play nice. (See our full terms of service here.)
Here are some rules of the road:
• Keep your comments civil. Don't insult one another or the subjects of our articles. If you think a comment violates our guidelines click the "report abuse" button to notify the moderators. Responding to the comment will only encourage bad behavior.
• Don't use profanities, vulgarities or hate speech. This is a general interest news site. Sometimes, there are children present. Don't say anything in a way you wouldn't want your own child to hear.
• Do not attack other users; focus your comments on issues, not individuals.
• Stay on topic. Only post comments relevant to the article at hand. If you want to discuss an issue with a specific user, click on his profile name and send him a direct message.
• Do not copy and paste outside material into the comment box.
• Don't repeat the same comment over and over. We heard you the first time.
• Do not use the commenting system for advertising. That's spam and it isn't allowed.
• Don't use all capital letters. That's akin to yelling and not appreciated by the audience.
You should also know that The Sacramento Bee does not screen comments before they are posted. You are more likely to see inappropriate comments before our staff does, so we ask that you click the "report abuse" button to submit those comments for moderator review. You also may notify us via email at feedback@sacbee.com. Note the headline on which the comment is made and tell us the profile name of the user who made the comment. Remember, comment moderation is subjective. You may find some material objectionable that we won't and vice versa.
If you submit a comment, the user name of your account will appear along with it. Users cannot remove their own comments once they have submitted them, but you may ask our staff to retract one of your comments by sending an email to feedback@sacbee.com. Again, make sure you note the headline on which the comment is made and tell us your profile name.
About Comments
Reader comments on Sacbee.com are the opinions of the writer, not The Sacramento Bee. If you see an objectionable comment, click the "report abuse" button below it. We will delete comments containing inappropriate links, obscenities, hate speech, and personal attacks. Flagrant or repeat violators will be banned. See more about comments here.