A year ago, no one would have blamed John McCain's convention delegates had they made other plans for this coming week.

The Arizona senator was short on cash and staff as polls showed him in fourth place for the Republican presidential nomination. Rudy Giuliani was the hot candidate, known the world over as New York City's mayor during the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Upstart conservatives Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee were building steam.

But once McCain struck a definitive blow to his rivals on Super Tuesday, including in California, his supporters had to start clearing their calendars for the four-day Republican National Convention that begins today in St. Paul, Minn.

"Our thought last summer was, gee, Senator McCain is down at about zero, and we didn't know how long the campaign was going to last," said Robert Laurie, a McCain delegate and Camino attorney. "But we remained very loyal to the man, and things have worked out."

Now the 173-member California delegation – 155 of them committed to McCain – are leaders in the daunting task of trying to deliver the nation's largest state to the GOP for the first time in 20 years.

With his eyes on November, McCain promised donors in Sacramento last week that he will compete in California and won't "take your money and leave."

Most political prognosticators dismiss the notion that McCain can defeat Sen. Barack Obama in Democrat-dominated California, but his supporters point to the primary as an example of the Republican's ability to defy the polls.

The odds remain stacked against him.

No GOP presidential candidate has won the state since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Democrats own an 11.3-percentage point registration advantage over Republicans, larger than the 7.6 percent gap that existed in 2004 when President Bush lost California by 10 percent.

"One word summarizes his chances: 'remote,'" said John J. Pitney Jr., government professor at Claremont McKenna College. "He was being polite to the donors and he may well make a visit or two to the state, but it would be political malpractice to put a large amount of money in California. You have to put it in states that make a difference, and California is not one of them."

Still, delegates are heading to the convention with high hopes after a Public Policy Institute of California poll last week showed McCain within 9 points of Obama in California, the closest the Republican has been all summer.

"It's more encouraging than it was a month or two ago," said Joel Fox, president of the Small Business Action Committee and a delegate from Granada Hills. "If Senator Obama doesn't get a bump out of his convention, it could close even more. A lot of people haven't paid attention until now, and there will be a lot of questions about whether Senator Obama is ready to lead."

Others say that McCain can use his image as an independent-minded Republican to appeal to California's growing class of decline-to-state voters, who now account for 1 in 5 registrants statewide.

"If any Republican would have a chance to win California, it's McCain," said Tony Krvaric, a Romney delegate and head of the Republican Party of San Diego County. "He is the maverick Republican. He has worked across the aisle on multiple issues, sometimes to the dismay of fellow Republicans, which Californians respect."

McCain's surprise pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate may give added incentive to undecided California voters, particularly women, delegates said.

"I don't know that 'any woman' would have appeal to voters, but this woman will," said Laura Radke, a Tulare-based delegate and a California Republican Party vice chair. "She's grown up in an age when women can do anything and she can do anything, and I think women will support her."

Palin's strong conservative views and anti-abortion stance could turn off moderate women in California. But she may gain support among voters with strong religious views, such as Catholic Latinos, said Tony Quinn, editor of the nonpartisan California Target Book, which handicaps political races.

"What fascinates me about the (Hillary) Clinton vote is that it's very heavily the Latino vote, so it's possible that Palin may have some appeal to them," Quinn said. "The image of a woman opposed to abortion is going to help more than hurt there."

Yet Quinn said the math just doesn't help McCain in California. He estimates that Democratic presidential candidates finish about 10 percentage points higher in California than in other states on average. The only way McCain would win the state, Quinn said, is if he wins the national election in a rout.

"California would go for McCain in a national landslide," Quinn said. "It would have to be something where he's winning about 400 (out of 538) electoral votes."

He said anything could happen, but the national race remains close and Obama has strong support among core constituencies in California.

Republican delegates said they feel the McCain campaign is taking California more seriously than Bush did in 2004. Krvaric said his San Diego County GOP offices struggled to get their hands on Bush signs and materials four years ago, but they're well-stocked with McCain supplies now.

"This is such a bizarre political year," Gadke said. "If you'd have asked me whether John McCain was going to be our candidate a year ago, I would have laughed at you. There's just no telling what's going to happen next."

Call Kevin Yamamura, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5548.