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Obama leads McCain slightly in four swing states

Published: Wednesday, Sep. 24, 2008 - 12:00 am | Page 15A

WASHINGTON – Hunger for change is helping Barack Obama hold a small lead in four battleground states, new polls indicated Tuesday.

The numbers:

• In Colorado, Obama leads John McCain 49 percent to 45 percent. He had trailed in the last survey there before the conventions.

• In Michigan, Obama leads 48 percent to 44 percent. He also led by four points before.

• In Minnesota, Obama leads 47 percent to 45 percent. He also led by two points before.

• In Wisconsin, Obama leads 49 percent to 42 percent. He had led by a wider margin before.

The key reason for Obama's edge appears to be that voters want change and by wide margins see him as the more likely agent of change than McCain. They preferred Obama to change things by margins ranging from 19 to 24 points.

"With a lousy economy, an unpopular war and an even less popular Republican president, it's difficult to find voters who don't want change," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Polling Institute at Quinnipiac University, which conducted the polls in conjunction with the Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com. "The Wall Street meltdown while these polls were in the field probably fed the public desire for change and seemed to benefit Sen. Obama."

The polls each have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 or 2.7 percentage points.

A new Ipsos-McClatchy poll, meanwhile, shows McCain approaches his first debate with Obama with a decided advantage among voters on the issues of national security and foreign policy, the subjects of their showdown Friday night.

McCain is at a disadvantage with voters, however, on the issues of jobs and the economy, where Obama is viewed as stronger. With the country's financial system in crisis, those concerns are dominating voters' minds by a large margin, the poll found.

Yet neither candidate had an advantage on the mortgage and financial crisis; voters split almost evenly over who was best suited to manage it. Neither had majority support.

McCain was judged "qualified" to resolve the crisis by 46 percent of registered voters and Obama by 45 percent.

The net effect: The two remain neck and neck for the third week in a row. Obama was supported by 44 percent of registered voters, McCain by 43 percent. The poll, with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, was taken Thursday through Monday.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr each got 2 percent. Another 5 percent supported none of the four, and 4 percent said they didn't know whom they supported.


Call Steven Thomma, McClatchy Washington Bureau, (202) 383-6042.


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