The Field Poll showed the measure trailing by 17 points in September. Then supporters began airing television ads that expanded their arguments beyond whether gay couples should be allowed to marry, warning that schools would incorporate same-sex marriage into lesson plans.
School officials and opponents dismissed the claims as "fear-mongering." But supporters had narrowed the deficit to five percentage points before the election.
"We did better with the late deciders, and we ran a better campaign," said Jeff Flint, a consultant for Yes on 8.
While opponents' ads ultimately disputed claims gay marriage would be promoted in schools, Flint said opponents of the measure "couldn't see that we were changing the topic and terms of the debate in time to counter that."
"The debate was not about whether we should allow gay couples to get married," he said. "The issue was about the larger consequences to society. Then, once the debate was on that ground, we were debating on a topic that was favorable to us."
Flint also said polls didn't accurately measure opposition to same-sex marriage.
"We think there's some small, but significant, segment (of voters) that basically don't tell the truth to pollsters because they want to be perceived as 'cool,' " he said.
Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo called that "an interesting theory" but said he didn't see any evidence to support it. He attributed the late surge in support for Proposition 8 to Catholic voters, who were urged to support it from the pulpit two days before the election.
The No on 8 campaign held out hope Wednesday that the outcome could change.
Kate Kendall, executive director of the National Center for Lesbian Rights, noted that perhaps 3 million ballots remain uncounted statewide.
But Dennis Mangers, co-chairman of the No on 8 Northern California Committee, acknowledged a turnaround would be a long shot.
"On the basis of my experience in politics for 45 years … I'd be surprised if it changes significantly," said Mangers, a former assemblyman.
Mangers said he was "utterly disappointed" by the outcome.
"It's so incongruous for Californians to have done some of the things they did," he said, citing the turnout for Obama. "They did some very progressive things, except for Prop. 8."
Call Aurelio Rojas, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5545. Bee Political Editor Amy Chance and The Bee's Andy Furillo contributed to this report.
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