Opposition has emerged to several ballot measures that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders believe are essential to resolving the state's massive budget deficit.
There may never be a better time for opponents to pounce. Voters are angry about the economy, state budget and leadership in Sacramento, and seem willing to express their disgust through the six measures, according to a survey released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California, or PPIC.
"I think this thing is going to go down because the people of this state have just about had it," said Ted Costa of People's Advocate, a taxpayer group. "They've had it with this governor and they've had it with this Legislature."
Leaders are counting on the May 19 measures to reduce the deficit by $5.8 billion. The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office projects a new revenue shortfall of $8 billion, so if voters reject the ballot proposals the state would face a summer deficit of nearly $14 billion.
The California Nurses Association and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees announced their opposition in the past week, saying that Proposition 1A would force too many spending cuts in future years. The ballot measure would limit spending in good years but also increase taxes by $16 billion from 2011 to 2013.
The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association has launched its own drive against Proposition 1A, largely targeting the tax hikes.
Supporters have a significant financial advantage, however, with backing from business groups, a California Lottery vendor and the California Teachers Association, not to mention a record-setting fundraiser in Schwarzenegger.
AFSCME lobbyist Willie Pelote said he is reaching out to other labor unions to form an opposition coalition. Howard Jarvis President Jon Coupal said Wednesday that taxpayer groups are interested in joining forces with the unions who are their philosophical opposites.
Ratings for Schwarzenegger and the Legislature are at record lows. Only 11 percent approve of state lawmakers and 33 percent approve of the governor. PPIC director Mark Baldassare said those feelings are transferrable to the budget measures that Schwarzenegger and lawmakers placed on the ballot.
"It's fair to say that the governor's and the Legislature's approval ratings have made it more difficult for people to feel that the budget measures are needed as a solution," Baldassare said. "Add to that the general complexity of them and the economic uncertainty in their own lives, and it's a difficult time for voters to accept these measures as necessary."
The PPIC poll found that Proposition 1A is trailing among voters, with 46 percent opposed and 39 percent in support. Half of voters oppose Proposition 1C which would expand and borrow against the California Lottery while only 37 percent support it.
Other measures are faring better. Proposition 1B, which would obligate the state to pay schools a total of $9.3 billion in future years, has 44 percent support and 41 percent opposition. Propositions 1D and 1E, which would allow the state to temporarily take roughly $800 million in early childhood development and mental health funds, are each leading by at least 10 points, but neither has recorded majority support.
And in a sign of their disgust for lawmakers, voters by an 81 percent to 13 percent majority overwhelmingly support Proposition 1F, which would ban legislative pay raises in deficit years.
While opponents have emerged, Julie Soderlund, spokeswoman for the Budget Reform Now proponents' campaign, said a larger coalition has formed to support the measures, from law enforcement to the California Taxpayers Association.
"In the coming months, we look forward to educating voters (about) what these measures will do in the short term and long term," Soderlund said. "This is about changing the status quo and ending dysfunction in the budget process."
Plenty of voter distrust exists for opponents to tap into but it's not clear they will raise enough money to get their message through.
The largest opposition donation has come from the California Council of Community Mental Health Agencies, which contributed $100,000 against Proposition 1E. It takes away roughly $230 million in mental health funds for other budget purposes. Unions and anti-tax groups have not yet declared major contributions, though Coupal insisted his group would have enough money for a mail and radio campaign.
Republicans have speculated that leading gubernatorial candidates, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, could donate money against Proposition 1A from their sizable personal fortunes in order to sway GOP voters. Both have criticized the proposal, but neither has committed to spending money.
Schwarzenegger already has transferred $1.3 million into his campaign account from the California Republican Party money that he raised for the party last year and was able to claim for his own causes.
Meanwhile, the California Teachers Association contributed $2 million toward Proposition 1B. Orange County developer Henry Segerstrom donated $250,000. And California Lottery vendor GTECH Corp. gave $250,000 toward Proposition 1C.
"For most people, our poll is the first time they've heard the specifics of these ballot measures," Baldassare said. "There's lots and lots that has to be learned and understood. The challenge is, it's a relatively short period of time."
Call Kevin Yamamura, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5548.


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